Hawai'i's economy should withstand the fallout from Wednesday's foiled terrorist plot to bomb airliners, local economists and business executives said yesterday.

It's too early to know for sure if tightened airport security in response to the arrests of suspected airline bomb plotters in London will affect the state's tourism-dependent economy.

But the initial assessment is the events will not damage the state's nearly 10-year run of economic expansion, and that the scare may even help local tourism by discouraging travel abroad.

"I think the impact will be very small, if any, and may even be positive," said state economist Pearl Imada Iboshi.

Robert Moore, chief operating officer and managing director for tour firm Roberts Hawaii, said he's not worried about a decline in travel to the Islands either.

"I think visitors see us as not only a beautiful place but a safe place ... and because of that I think people will continue to come here," he said.

The projected increase for visitor arrivals this year was downgraded by the state in May from 3.2 percent growth to 2.8 percent growth. That would still result in a record number of visitors this year.

The economy is still growing, just at a slower pace.

Slower growth in personal income and jobs plus a slight rise in inflation is likely to cut the increase in gross state product to 3 percent this year, down from 3.8 percent last year, according to the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

Byron Gangnes, a University of Hawai'i associate professor of economics, said higher oil prices and a potential slowdown in U.S. economic expansion are much greater threats to Hawai'i's economy than the London bomb plot.

"It doesn't seem to me that this recent (terrorist) scare is going to be big enough to impact us too much," he said. "It doesn't seem to me like it's going to have an impact on people's willingness to travel."

Gangnes said he would need to see reports on whether people cancel trips in the next few weeks or book less travel in the fall to get a good sense of whether the London plot affected the psyche of travelers.

Outrigger Enterprises Group executive vice president of hospitality services Barry Wallace said he's hopeful the terror threat won't have any long-term impact on the tourism industry.

"Obviously there will be a little more of a hassle now with new restrictions on what you can carry, but aside from that we hope that it remains strong," he said. "We don't anticipate a large number of cancellations as a result of this."

Past experience has showed that adverse global events on travel — the first Gulf War, Sept. 11, the start of the second Gulf War and SARS — can be absorbed by Hawai'i's economy.

Richard Reid, the "shoe bomber" who attempted to blow up a Paris-to-Miami flight, isn't believed to have had any discernable impact on travel to Hawai'i.

Gangnes said the plot out of London, which involved a plan to blow up as many as 10 jetliners bound to the United States from Britain, appears to be a more coordinated effort with potentially far greater destruction.

Still, he said travelers may merely be inconvenienced by the prohibition of bottled water, soap and other liquids or gels in carry-on bags.

For years, travelers have become accustomed to long waits in airport security lines, prohibition of sharp objects and removing footwear.

"Traveling without toothpaste (in your carry-on) ... it's more of an inconvenience," Gangnes said. "You just pack it in your (check-in) luggage."

Moore of Roberts Hawaii took a plane from the Big Island to Honolulu yesterday, and said his security wait was 35 minutes compared with a more normal 20 minutes. "That went pretty smoothly," he said. "It wasn't so bad."

More information about the London-based plot, particularly whether other attacks could be imminent, may have a broader longer-lasting influence on travel, Gangnes cautioned.

"We're going to have to keep a close eye on this, but it's too soon to be overly concerned about this," he said.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.