The Big Island has taken one of the biggest hits among Hawai'i counties in terms of the economic recession, according to an analysis by local economist Leroy Laney.

Laney, a professor of economics and finance at Hawai'i Pacific University, yesterday painted a dismal picture of the Big Island's economy as part of an economic report sponsored by First Hawaiian Bank.

Among the low points:

• Tourism spending on the Big Island has fallen more than in other counties.

• There is just one large housing project under construction on the island.

• Commercial real estate is overbuilt.

• Even sales of the island's hottest export — bottled desalinated seawater — are down.

"At this stage of the cycle, things may look pretty bleak," he said in remarks prepared for delivery during two presentations at the Naniloa Hotel and Hapuna Beach Prince Hotel. "But better times will return — they always do."

Laney's expectation is for a gradual recovery next year for the Big Island economy, which will be largely dependent on a tourism rebound encouraged by an improving Mainland economy. That's generally in line with other economic forecasts for the state.

In some respects, the Big Island has weathered the statewide economic downturn a bit better than other Neighbor Islands because the east side of the island is far less dependent on tourism.

"That may not seem so good in the boom times, but it looks a lot better in times like the present," Laney said.

Laney noted that barge arrivals at Hilo Harbor are still the same today at about three per week as they were in 2005 at the peak of the economic cycle, whereas arrivals at Kawaihae Harbor in West Hawai'i are down to about two per week now, compared with five or six per week in 2005.

However, most of the Big Island's economic activity is concentrated around West Hawai'i resorts that are suffering more than other Neighbor Islands and O'ahu from reduced visitor spending.

During the first half of this year, visitor spending fell 17 percent on the Big Island, compared with declines of 13 percent on Kaua'i, 15 percent on O'ahu and 16 percent on Maui.

Laney noted that the Big Island is suffering a bit more than other Neighbor Islands, which are more dependent on tourism than O'ahu, because Maui and Kaua'i have more time-shares — which help attract some visitors, because they already have paid for a place to stay.

Unemployment on the Big Island has been running slightly higher than in other counties, at close to 10.5 percent this year through August, reflecting a roughly 5 percent reduction in jobs.

Electricity usage on the island is expected to be down 1.9 percent this year, Laney said, and the value of Big Island real estate is forecast to be down 4 percent, along with reduced property tax collections after six straight years of more than 10 percent increases.

The Big Island's construction industry is expected to continue to languish because of overbuilding, especially for commercial projects and resort condominiums.

Lokahi Apartments, a 306-unit affordable housing complex in Kailua, Kona, is the only housing project under construction, according to Laney. The $65 million project delivered its first 30 units, and is slated to be completed over the next year.

Private building permits are forecast by Laney to be down 45 percent this year, after a nearly 25 percent decline last year.

Desalinated bottled water exports, which had been a booming business for several companies at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawai'i in Kona, are also down. According to figures from Foreign Trade Zone No. 9, bottled water exports from companies at NELHA to overseas markets, primarily Japan, are down 8 percent by weight this year through June.

A few bright spots of economic activity include some government construction projects, such as a $25 million science and technology building at the University of Hawai'i-Hilo, a $22 million Hawaiian Language College building slated to break ground later this year on the campus and nearly $12 million of construction for the College of Pharmacy.

Hawai'i County is counting on $35 million in federal stimulus money for a highway improvement project in Kona, though funding has not been awarded.

A $1.2 billion telescope slated for Mauna Kea promises to provide 140 permanent jobs and 300 construction jobs, but isn't slated to begin until 2011.