NEW YORK — A forecast of economic activity rose in August for the fifth straight month, the latest sign the recession has ended. The Conference Board's leading indicators point to an economy on solid ground early next year, though some analysts caution that a rising unemployment rate will restrain growth.

The Conference Board said yesterday its index of leading indicators rose 0.6 percent in August. That follows a 0.9 percent gain in July revised up from 0.6 percent. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a 0.7 percent gain last month.

The indicators are designed to project economic activity in the next three to six months. The August results support analysts' projections that the economy started growing again in the July-September quarter and will continue to gain in the fourth quarter.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week said the recession was "very likely over."

Some analysts worry that any current economic growth will falter as unemployment rises from the August rate of 9.7 percent to above 10 percent. But the leading indicators provided a rosier outlook for next year, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Ethan Harris.

DELL EYES EXPANSION WITH $3.9B PEROT SYSTEMS DEAL

NEW YORK — Dell Inc. will spend $3.9 billion for the technology services company Perot Systems Corp. in an attempt to expand beyond the PC business and compete more aggressively with Hewlett-Packard Co. — which recently bought another tech-services company founded by H. Ross Perot.

Dell said it will offer $30 per share in cash for Perot Systems — a 68 percent premium over its closing price Friday. Perot Systems' shares rose $11.65, or 65 percent, to close at $29.56.

Former presidential candidate H. Ross Perot Sr., 79, serves as chairman emeritus of Perot Systems, which he founded in 1988. According to an April regulatory filing, Perot and related trusts controlled at least 25 percent of the company's stock, though the beneficiary of those shares was not clear.

OIL PRICES DOWN FOR 3RD DAY AHEAD OF FED MEETING

NEW YORK — Oil prices fell for a third straight day before the U.S. Federal Reserve meets to discuss monetary policy, which for months has helped to drive crude prices higher.

Benchmark crude for October delivery lost more than 3 percent, or $2.33, to settle at $69.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

With the October contract set to expire today, traders were focusing more on the November contract, which fell $2.56 to settle at $69.93. Natural gas futures, which have soared throughout the month, fell sharply, as did most other fuels.

Energy consumption in North America and Europe has been crimped by recession, leaving China as one of the few countries that continue to consume oil, gasoline and diesel in large quantities. That pace, at least during late summer, appeared to slow, according to a report released yesterday. Chinese oil demand slid 5.4 percent in August from July, the first month-to-month drop since March, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.