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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, October 16, 2009

NFL: Capsules for this weekend's games


By Greg Cote
McClatchy Newspapers

GAME OF THE WEEK

GIANTS (5-0) AT SAINTS (4-0)
When: 1 p.m. EDT Sunday
Line: NO by 3; Cote’s pick: NYG 27-24
This was an easy call for the Game of the Week committee. Unbeaten vs. unbeaten fills the marquee, then you have Drew Brees vs. Eli Manning — New Orleans-born and playing in his hometown for first time. It will be a Manningfest, with daddy Archie and bro Peyton (on a bye) also there. This might be NFC title-game preview; Saints are for real. But I like Biggies in upset. Tough to pick against home fave coming off bye, but NYG has front seven and pass D to limit Brees. Eli is 6-1 in domes, and Big Blue 18-3 against spread in past 21 roadies.
Conclusion: Giants roll to 6-0 for first time since 1990.

DOG OF THE WEEK
RAMS (0-5) AT JAGUARS (2-3)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: JAC by 10; Cote’s pick: JAC 38-13
There was competition for the Dog of the Week collar, but the deciders could not resist an 0-5 team playing a team that just lost, 41-0. Jags WR Torry Holt faces his former teammates for first time, and he will exit smiling. St. Lose is truly horrid and will ably play the role of a convenient, timely punching bag for Jacksonville to take out a slew of frustrations, including last week’s embarrassment.

LIONS (1-4) AT PACKERS (2-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: GB by 13-›; Cote’s pick: GB 30-20
GeeBees are coming off bye after a loss. This does not feel like a home game they will let slip, especially against an opponent they have beaten seven times in a row. And with Aaron Rodgers 14-3 on TDs/picks in eight career division starts. Line feels fat, though. Lions still bad, but no longer abysmal.

BROWNS (1-4) AT STEELERS (3-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: PIT by 14; Cote’s pick: PIT 42-7
Steelers were not real impressive in beating Detroit last week, and this looms as a look-past game, with Pitt hosting Vikes next. Still, I see a big show from Big Benners, who are in three-way division fight and needing to reassert themselves as AFC power brokers. Pitt is on 11-0 run in this series.

PANTHERS (1-3) AT BUCCANEERS (0-5)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: CAR by 3-›; Cote’s pick: CAR 20-13
Bucs are off to London after this, and poor Tampa fans might prefer they never come back if Carolina hangs an 0-6 on ’em. Panthers are on a 9-3 series run, but TeeBees still have a fair shot at an upset. Hopefully, Carolina is smart enough to know it isn’t good enough to be overconfident.

CHIEFS (0-5) AT REDSKINS (2-3)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: WAS by 6-›; Cote’s pick: WAS 20-17
KayCee rose up to give Dallas a fair challenge last week and makes enticing upset pick, but I’ll side with a decent defense at home. Wonder why Washington is so unhappy at 2-3? Skins are first team ever to play six consecutive games vs. winless opponents. That counts facing a 0-0 in opener. But still!

TEXANS (2-3) AT BENGALS (4-1)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: CIN by 5; Cote’s pick: CIN 27-24
This initially felt like a strong Upset of the Week contender — and I hate to override a gut feeling with logic, I truly do — but further analysis suggested to me that Cedric Benson will continue his hot foot against this Houston run defense. So logic rules this pick. But nervously.

CARDINALS (2-3) AT SEAHAWKS (2-3)
When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Line: SEA by 3; Cote’s pick: SEA 30-24
Bird Bowl series finds Cards having won four of past five over Hawks, including ’08 sweep, but I’d buck that trend. Seattle banked a whole bunch of confidence with last week’s 41-0 pasting of Jax, and Seabirds are simply a totally different team when Matt Hasselbeck is healthy.

UPSET OF THE WEEK
RAVENS (3-2) AT VIKINGS (5-0)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: MIN by 3; Cote’s pick: BAL 23-21
“AAWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “OK, so I’m partial to Ravens. I admit it. Sue me.” Brett Favre and Minny are due a stumble, and the Ravens are much too good to fall to 3-3. Baltimore’s defense will rebound from last week’s loss and come close to limiting Adrian Peterson’s damage, and it also will end Favre’s Metrodome streak of 10 consecutive games with two or more TD passes. “Once upon a midnight dreary,” intones the U-Bird, creepily lapsing into Edgar Allan Poe’s The Raven, “the Vikings fell, weak and weary. Minny undefeated? Nevermore! Aawwk!”

EAGLES (3-1) AT RAIDERS (1-4)
When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Line: PHI by 14; Cote’s pick: PHI 34-13
Home ’dog getting 14 points almost always tempts, but make an exception for awful Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell and America’s Most Dysfunctional Team. Think the Oakland Faders might be even worse than the Rammed. I try not to be a slave to against-the-spread trends, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Philly is on a 13-5 run on the road and Oaks are on a 5-16 skid at home.

BILLS (1-4) AT JETS (3-2)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: NYJ by 10; Cote’s pick: NYJ 24-9
People I would not care to be Sunday: Trent Edwards, or anyone close enough to Terrell Owens to hear him complaining. Miami embarrassed Rex Ryan and his Jets defense Monday night, and I anticipate a big, crushing, statement performance by that unit against one of the NFL’s worst offenses.

TITANS (0-5) AT PATRIOTS (3-2)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: NE by 9-›; Cote’s pick: NE 24-16
Pats’ loss last week bunched up AFC East and made this win essential before NE takes off for next game in London. (Quick aside: Junior Seau — that ol’ cat retires and comes back more than Brett Favre). English 5-11 against spread in past 16 at home, but Titans playing for pride and could beat spread.

BEARS (3-1) AT FALCONS (3-1)
When: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
Line: ATL by 3; Cote’s pick: ATL 27-20
Sunday nighter looks like a good one, with Bears coming in on three-game winning streak and off bye week, and Falcs bringing all sorts of heat with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Close call, but make it a venue pick. ATL 8-3 against spread in past 11 games at home.

BRONCOS (5-0) AT CHARGERS (2-2)
When: 8:30 p.m. Monday
Line: SD by 4; Cote’s pick: SD 31-23
Somebody needs to remind Denver that overachievement doesn’t last forever and that Kyle Orton is, well, Kyle Orton. I think Diego is the bunch to do it on the Monday stage, despite its struggles running. Bolts have won past three at home in division rivalry, and Philip Rivers is 4-0 as a starter on MNF.

————
OFF THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (2-3; next vs. Saints)
Call ’em the Mo-ami Dolphins. Momentum is two big division wins a row, the emergence of Chad Henne, the Wildcat poppin’, renewed life in the playoff picture, confidence brimming, and a bye week to prepare for Drew Brees.
COLTS (5-0; next at Rams)
Peyton (Peyday) Manning is playing better than ever, and now Colts have winless, awful St. Louis on deck.
COWBOYS (3-2; next vs. Falcons)
Tough test awaits Dallas squad that survived more than beat Kansas City in OT. Still trying to figure out how good Tony Romo and Cowboys are.
49ERS (3-2; next at Texans)
Getting spanked at home by Atlanta was a back-to-Earth moment for Niners. Holdout Michael Crabtree debuting next week comes at a good time.