National League Championship Series

Dodgers vs. Phillies


Starting pitching
Many observers considered it an upset when the Dodgers had the pitching to hold off a Cardinals staff led by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. It really wasn’t that surprising. The Dodgers actually had the lowest ERA from starting staffs in the playoffs, an amazing feat given the injuries that bedeviled them all season. Clayton Kershaw and Vicente Padilla pitched well against the Cardinals. The Phillies’ starting staff is shaky behind ace Cliff Lee, with 2008 playoff star Cole Hamels racking up a 7.06 ERA in his last four starts. Lee, who started Monday against the Rockies in Colorado, won’t be available to pitch on full rest until Game 3. Look for Hamels and either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton to get the starts at Dodger Stadium. Pedro Martinez is a possibility, but he didn’t pitch against the Rockies.
Edge: Dodgers.

Bullpen
This is a quiet strength for Joe Torre’s team, as it was a year ago. The Dodgers’ relievers allowed only two earned runs in 92/3 innings against the Cardinals, with George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton working in all three games. Sherrill and fellow lefty Hong-Chih Kuo should play key roles against the left-handed hitters in the middle of the Phillies’ order. Brad Lidge, not viewed as the closer when the playoffs began, somehow goes into the LCS round tied with the Angels’ Brian Fuentes for the saves lead (two).
Edge: Dodgers.

Hitting
Long balls often win playoff games, and the Phillies get a big edge. They led the NL with 224 regular-season homers, 79 more than the Dodgers. But the Phillies have used more than just power to score an average of 4.7 runs per game in the playoffs the last two years. They can run the bases and deliver hits when they count the most. Jayson Werth especially seems to raise his game. The Dodgers can have surprising trouble scoring runs at times, in part because Manny Ramirez is not the same guy he was before his 50-game PED suspension. But Ramirez had a two-double game against the Cardinals Saturday, hinting at a resurgence. Andre Ethier and Matt Kent demand as much attention as Ramirez.
Edge: Phillies.

Fielding
No team in the playoffs allowed fewer unearned runs than Philadelphia. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are solid up the middle. The Dodgers feature shortstop Rafael Furcal, whose arm is still a treasure.
Edge: Phillies.

Bench
Give Jim Thome enough chances, he’s going to win a game with a big hit, most likely a homer. But Ronnie Belliard was a bigger addition in a series of late trades, hitting so well that Torre can weigh matchups to decide whether to start Orlando Hudson, a 2009 All-Star. Juan Pierre, a $9 million a year player, offers speed and defense, if not a bargain. The Phillies’ Matt Stairs led the majors with five pinch homers. Outfielder Ben Francisco has game, which he showed with a shoe-top catch against the Rockies.
Edge: Dodgers.

Manager
Torre would get a career edge but Charlie Manuel clearly has a great feel for his team, which has won 14 of 18 playoff games since a first-round exit in 2007. Torre is managing in the championship series for the ninth time but his teams have won only two of their last seven series.
Edge: Phillies.

Gut read
There’s not a lot of difference between these teams, who met here last season. The Phillies won that one in five games but don’t figure to win easily two years in a row. But if they’re going to pull off an upset, they will need something heroic from the starting rotation. Kershaw is capable. So is Chad Billingsley, but his 5.20 second-half ERA has left Torre unable to trust him.
Pick: Phillies in seven.