Visitor industry leaders yesterday pointed to signs of economic rebound next summer but cautioned that a more sustained recovery could take years.

"Everything is pointing in the right direction," industry consultant Joseph Toy said of recent improvements in visitor arrivals and hotel occupancy.

Toy's Hospitality Advisors LLC co-sponsored the 17th annual briefing for industry leaders yesterday at the Halekulani Hotel with Duff & Phelps, a global company specializing in financial advisory and investment banking services.

David Baldwin Jr. of Duff & Phelps said hotel companies and other visitor industry players have suffered from the effects of the subprime mortgage market's collapse and ensuing credit crisis.

Double-digit declines in occupancy and hotel revenue have been in the headlines for more than a year. Although the numbers have stabilized or edged up in recent months, the leaders warned that a full recovery will take time because of the depth of the slide.

Toy said since April 2008, there has been a $1.1 billion loss in overall hotel revenue including rooms, food and beverage, and retail.

And while the Hawai'i numbers remain better than many other visitor destinations, Toy said the decline has hit the state's hotel owners hard. The best occupancy numbers this year weren't as high as the slowest part of 2006, he said.

Toy also said the industry is mindful that more hotels could fall into delinquency. So far, he pointed to several key properties taken back by lenders: Ilikai Hotel, W Hotel, Kaua'i Hilton, Sheraton Keauhou and the Fairmont Orchid.

He said Hawai'i loan defaults have totaled $1.6 billion but predicted that will accelerate next year.

Baldwin said some businesses with dwindling revenue are hanging on by using cash reserves and maintenance funds to pay operating expenses. The hope is to stave off bankruptcy long enough to be around for the eventual economic recovery, he said.

But for some companies, "the day of reckoning could be coming," Baldwin said. "In the long term, we're going to work these things out."

Paul Brewbaker of TZ Economics said signs of improvement are starting to emerge. "We're starting to see the curve turn," said Brewbaker, who serves on the state Council on Revenues.

Toy also said some of the changes in the industry reflect shifts in the type of lodging away from traditional hotel rooms to more condominium hotels and time-share properties.

From 2000 to 2008, he said the number of hotel units was 50,218, or 70 percent of the market.

By last year, he said that dropped 7,757 units while the number of timeshare units nearly doubled from 6 percent to 11.2 percent.