SEATTLE — Randy Johnson, through sheer perseverance on top of transcendent talent, will soon earn his 300th victory, joining one of baseball’s most exclusive clubs.

It has 23 members, from Pud Galvin in 1888 to Tom Glavine in 2007, with the likes of Cy Young, Walter Johnson and Tom Seaver in between.
But to listen to some people, the Big Unit — who goes for No. 299 on Friday night against the Mariners at Safeco Field — will be the final pitcher to reach 300 wins.
I don’t buy that for a second, although I understand the reasoning. The line of thinking is this: In the era of five-man rotations, relief specialists and pitch counts, modern-day starters simply won’t have the opportunity for enough decisions to reach 300.
Glavine expressed that opinion in 2007 — except the quotes were made up by the satirical geniuses at The Onion:
“Make no mistake, after me, there will be no one else to win this many games as a pitcher. Ever,” said Glavine in tones that froze the blood of all that heard it. “Randy Johnson will not recover from his injuries. (Mike) Mussina will not play, and perhaps not live, long enough. And CC Sabathia, I beg you — you are so young, with so much to live for. Do not dance with the devil by attempting to win 300 games now that Glavine has done so.”
That’s all fanciful, of course, but no less an authority than Nolan Ryan (324 career victories) leans toward the viewpoint that the 300-win pitcher is near extinction.
“With the way pitching is being used nowadays, I think it probably lessens the chance of it,” Ryan said Thursday in a national conference call.
“I think there’s some validity to that sentiment, because every time you go to the pen, it increases the chances of losing the game. There’s a chance one of those guys won’t be on that day, and it takes the decision out of that particular starter’s hands.”
Ryan, president of the Texas Rangers, has old-school sensibilities, and is trying to build up the pitch count of his team’s pitching prospects. He has also been known to advocate a return to the four-man rotations in vogue when he broke in with the New York Mets in 1966. But with the skyrocketing price of pitching, most general managers are reluctant to risk the fragile health of their most precious arms.
“Whether they start using starters differently because pitching is at such a premium, I don’t know,” Ryan said. “If baseball changes its attitude about how they’re using starting pitching, there’s probably a better chance that (300 wins) might happen.”
A look at the current win totals of active pitchers shows that no one is knocking at the door that Johnson is about to break down. Next behind Johnson, at 249, is his old Mariners teammate, Jamie Moyer. Now, I’m a huge admirer of Moyer’s, but at age 46, with a 7.62 earned-run average this season, the odds of him getting 51 more victories are not good.
Nor are any other current members of the top 10 active wins leaders young enough, or effective enough, to likely sustain a realistic run at 300. Yet I still don’t buy into the sentiment that the 300-game winner is dead.
Great and enduring pitchers will emerge from the current crop of young studs. They have throughout baseball history. Why not Sabathia, or Roy Halladay, or Jake Peavy, or Roy Oswalt, or Josh Beckett, or Cole Hamels, or Johan Santana, or Carlos Zambrano? Why not Felix Hernandez, who already has 43 wins, barely a month past his 23rd birthday? Heck, why not college phenom Stephen Strasburg?
Randy Johnson, at age 28, had just 48 wins to his credit. The eternals are not always easily identifiable.
Yes, there are five-man rotations and relief specialists, but the reduced workload, coupled with the miracles of medical science, should allow more pitchers to last into their 40s in pursuit of 300 wins — particularly with the lure of salaries like the $13 million Moyer will make over the next two years. And as Johnson is testament, longevity is critical to a feat that requires averaging 20 wins for 15 years, or 15 wins for 20.
Glavine, Greg Maddux and Johnson are proof that 300 wins can happen in the five-man rotation era. They are all magnificent pitchers, but baseball has produced a steady stream of magnificence for more than a century.
I’d like to think there’s more where they came from.