Kentucky Derby: Handicapping the race
By Dick Jerardi
Philadelphia Daily News
What: 135th Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday, 6:24 p.m. EDT post time (Race 11)
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
TV: NBC-TV, coverage begins at 4 p.m.
Wagering Info: 1-888-BET-2-WIN or www.phonebet.com
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
Purse: $$2,202,200 (if 20 start); $1,442,200 to the winner
Remaining Triple Crown schedule: Preakness Stakes, May 16; Belmont Stakes, June 6.
WEST SIDE BERNIE — 1
Morning Line: 30-1
Owner: George and Lori Hall
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Jockey: Stewart Elliott
Graded earnings: $385,160
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 0; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 1
Career: Starts: 7; 1st: 2; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 1
Last three: Wood Memorial (2nd), Lane's End (6th), Holy Bull (3rd).
Jerardi's breakdown: Five years after he won the Derby on Smarty Jones, Stewart Elliott is in with a 30-1 shot.
MUSKET MAN — 2
Morning Line: 20-1
Owner: Eric Fein and Vic Carlson
Trainer: Derek Ryan
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Graded earnings: $485,000
2009: Starts: 4; 1st: 3; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 1
Career: Starts: 6; 1st: 5; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 1
Last three: Illinois Derby (1st), Tampa Bay Derby (1st), Sam F. Davis (3rd).
Jerardi's breakdown: Won his second career start at Philadelphia Park. Has won the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby.
MR. HOT STUFF — 3
Morning Line: 30-1
Owner: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Jockey: John Velazquez
Graded earnings: $114,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 1; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 2
Career: Starts: 7; 1st: 1; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 3
Last three: Santa Anita Derby (3rd), Sham Stakes (3rd), maiden special at Santa Anita (1st).
Jerardi's breakdown: Top jockey John Velazquez was going to ride Quality Road. He ended up here.
ADVICE — 4
Morning Line: 30-1
Owner: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Rene Douglas
Graded earnings: $186,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 1; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 1
Career: Starts: 6; 1st: 2; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 2
Last three: Lexington (1st), Sunland Derby (5th), allowance at Santa Anita (3rd).
Jerardi's breakdown: Won the last-chance Lexington Stakes for Todd Pletcher, but appears overmatched.
HOLD ME BACK — 5
Morning Line: 15-1
Owner: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Graded earnings: $438,000
2009: Starts: 2; 1st: 1; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 5; 1st: 3; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Last three: Blue Grass (2nd), Lane's End (1st), Remsen (2008) (5th).
Jerardi's breakdown: Won the Lane's End and second in the Blue Grass for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
FRIESAN FIRE — 6
Morning Line: 5-1
Owner: Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm
Trainer: Larry Jones
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Graded earnings: $570,465
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 3; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 7; 1st: 4; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 1
Last three: Louisiana Derby (1st), Risen Star Stakes (1st), Lecomte Stakes (1st).
Jerardi's breakdown: Won his debut at Delaware Park. Having a great 2009 and improving with every race.
PAPA CLEM — 7
Morning Line: 20-1
Owner: Bo Hirsch
Trainer: Gary Stute
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Graded earnings: $760,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 1; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 6; 1st: 2; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 0
Last three: Arkansas Derby (1st), Louisiana Derby (2nd), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (2nd).
Jerardi's breakdown: Rated nicely and came on to win the Arkansas Derby. Training at Churchill Downs has been strange.
MINE THAT BIRD — 8
Morning Line: 50-1
Owner: Double Eagle Ranch and Bueno Suerte Equine
Trainer: Bennie Woolley Jr.
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Graded earnings: $138,705
2009: Starts: 2; 1st: 0; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 8; 1st: 4; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Last three: Sunland Derby (4th), Borderland Derby (2nd), Breeders' Cup Juvenile (2008) (12th).
Jerardi's breakdown: Only wins were in Canada on artificial surfaces. Not fast enough.
JOIN IN THE DANCE — 9
Morning Line: 50-1
Owner: Rashard Lewis, et al.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Chris DeCarlo
Graded earnings: $90,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 0; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 1
Career: Starts: 8; 1st: 1; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 1
Last three: Blue Grass (5th), Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), allowance at Gulfstream (3rd).
Jerardi's breakdown: Last minute entrant takes what was a paceless race and ensures a hotter pace.
REGAL RANSOM — 10
Morning Line: 30-1
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Graded earnings: $1,250,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 1; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 5; 1st: 2; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 0
Last three: U.A.E. Derby (1st), U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas (2nd), allowance at Nad al Sheba (2nd).
Jerardi's breakdown: Likely to be part of the pace after leading all the way to upset stablemate in the UAE Derby.
CHOCOLATE CANDY — 11
Morning Line: 20-1
Owner: Sid and Jenny Craig Trust
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Mike Smith
Graded earnings: $370,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 2; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 9; 1st: 4; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 1
Last three: Santa Anita Derby (2nd), El Camino Real Derby (1st), California Derby (1st).
Jerardi's breakdown: Northern California star was second in the Santa Anita Derby and could hit the superfecta.
GENERAL QUARTERS — 12
Morning Line: 20-1
Owner: Thomas R. McCarthy
Trainer: Thomas R. McCarthy
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Graded earnings: $595,645
2009: Starts: 4; 1st: 2; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 11; 1st: 3; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 1
Last three: Blue Grass (1st), Tampa Bay Derby (5th), Sam F. Davis (1st).
Jerardi's breakdown: One-horse stable of 75-year-old owner/trainer Tom McCarthy, the retired Louisville high school principal.
I WANT REVENGE — 13
Morning Line: 3-1
Owner: David J. Lanzman, et al.
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Graded earnings: $774,000
2009: Start: 3; 1st: 2; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 1
Career: Starts: 8; 1st: 3; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 4
Last three: Wood Memorial (1st), Gotham (1st), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (3rd).
Jerardi's breakdown: Blew up completely when taken to New York for two races on a regular dirt track.
ATOMIC RAIN — 14
Morning Line: 50-1
Owner: George and Lori Hall
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Graded earnings: $77,500
2009: Starts: 4; 1st: 0; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 1
Career: Starts: 7; 1st: 1; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 1
Last three: Wood Memorial (4th), allowance at Gulfstream (3rd), Sam F. Davis (7th).
Jerardi's breakdown: Derby Fever overcame common sense when they decided to van this colt 12 hours from Monmouth Park.
DUNKIRK — 15
Morning Line: 4-1
Owner: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Graded earnings: $150,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 2; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 3; 1st: 2; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Last three: Florida Derby (2nd), allowance at Gulfstream (1st), maiden special at Gulfstream (1st).
Jerardi's breakdown: The $3.7 million colt has shown a huge move in each start so there is little question about the ability.
PIONEEROF THE NILE — 16
Morning Line: 4-1
Owner: Zayat Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Graded earnings: $1,193,250
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 3; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 8; 1st: 5; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 1
Last three: Santa Anita Derby (1st), San Felipe (1st), Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1st).
Jerardi's breakdown: Won all the big Santa Anita stakes this winter, but has never run a very fast race.
SUMMER BIRD — 17
Morning Line: 50-1
Owner: K.K. and Jayaraman Vilasini
Trainer: Tim Ice
Jockey: Chris Rosier
Graded earnings: $100,000
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 1; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 1
Career: Starts: 3; 1st: 1; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 1
Last three: Arkansas Derby (3rd), maiden special at Oaklawn (1st), maiden special at Oaklawn (4th).
Jerardi's breakdown: Rallying third in the Arkansas Derby, but is 50-1 here for a reason.
NOWHERE TO HIDE — 18
Morning Line: 50-1
Owner: My Meadowview Farm
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Graded earnings: $55,500
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 0; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 8; 1st: 1; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 1
Last three: Illinois Derby (4th), Tampa Bay Derby (4th), Risen Star Stakes (4th).
Jerardi's breakdown: Last horse to enter has won just one race and won't be winning this one.
DESERT PARTY — 19
Morning Line: 15-1
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Graded earnings: $641,667
2009: Starts: 3; 1st: 2; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 6; 1st: 4; 2nd: 1; 3rd: 0
Last three: U.A.E. Derby (2nd), U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas (1st), allowance at Nad al Sheba (1st).
Jerardi's breakdown: Godolphin's big hope could not pass unheralded stablemate in the UAE Derby in Dubai.
FLYING PRIVATE — 20
Morning Line: 50-1
Owner: Grand Slam Farm
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Graded earnings: $124,000
2009: Starts: 6; 1st: 0; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 0
Career: Starts: 10; 1st: 1; 2nd: 4; 3rd: 0
Last three: Arkansas Derby (5th), Lane's End (2nd), Mountain Valley Stakes (2nd)
Jerardi's breakdown: D. Wayne Lukas' record 43rd Derby starter. Hardly any chance to become his fifth Derby winner.
WAGERING TERMS
Win: Betting a horse to win the race.
Place: Betting a horse to finish first or second.
Show: Betting a horse to finish first, second or third.
Across the board: Betting an equal amount to win, place and show.
Exacta: A bet on which horses will finish first and second, in order.
Quinella: A bet on which horses will finish first and second, regardless of order.
Trifecta: A bet on which horses will finish first, second and third, in order.
Superfecta: A bet on which horses will finish first, second, third and fourth, in order.
Pick Six: Correctly picking the winners of six consecutive designated races. Pick Six wagering on Saturday at Churchill Downs begins with Race 5.