Prices and sales of previously owned single-family homes on O'ahu fell again last month.

February's median price declined 8.2 percent, to $555,000 from $599,000, in the same month last year, according to the Honolulu Board of Realtors

The drop, while more than double the full-year drop of 3 percent in 2008, was less than the 10.1 percent decline in January.

For the first two months of this year, the single-family home median price was $550,000, down 8.3 percent from $600,000 in the same two months last year.

There were 129 single-family homes sold in February, down 20.9 percent from 163 a year earlier. That compared with a 46.5 percent decline in January when there were 122 sales.

There have been relatively few sales so far this year, making it difficult to identify a trend for how big or small this year's emerging market decline may be. That's because the median price — a point at which half the sales are higher and half are lower — is influenced by the mix of homes sold.

So, the median can be pulled down by a greater proportion of older and smaller homes sold. Or, the median can be pushed up by sales of more newer and larger homes, especially luxury residences developed during the past real estate market boom.

For the first two months of the year, the median price in O'ahu's biggest single-family home submarket, the 'Ewa Plain, fell 3.9 percent on 38 sales.

In the next biggest market, Waipahu, with 26 sales, the median price was down 9.7 percent. And the median rose 6.4 percent in the third biggest submarket, Mililani, with 24 sales.

Harvey Shapiro, economist with the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said everything in the market — the number of listings, prices and sales — is smaller. "We can't just say the market is collapsing, but it is in miniature," he said.

GLOOMY FORECASTS

One factor contributing to the slowdown is the availability of loans. Shapiro said the number of sales that actually close is roughly half of what goes into escrow as pending sales. Many deals, he said, are falling through because buyers can't get a loan.

"That's a big problem," he said. However, Shapiro also said people are fearful of buying property.

"People are sitting on the sideline unsure where the market is going," he said.

Local brokerage firm Prudential Locations has forecast an overall 6 percent to 10 percent median price decline by midyear, adding that prices could be down more than 15 percent in some areas.

Moody's http://www.Economy.com forecasts that O'ahu's median home price will fall 30.9 percent between the second quarter of 2008 and early 2011, which, if averaged, could be close to 14 percent this year and next year.

The University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization is close to completing a forecast that is expected to project that home prices here will decline by half the amount of the http://www.Economy.com forecast.

CONDOS FOLLOW SUIT

Condominium sales in February fell 50.2 percent to 160, down from 321 a year earlier. That followed a 50.9 percent decline in January.

The median condo price last month was $297,000, down 11.3 percent from $335,000 a year earlier.

The drop was the largest since 11.6 percent in September when the median price was $296,000, and compared with a 5.8 percent decline in January.

For the first two months of this year, the condo median price was $300,000, down 9.1 percent from $330,000 in the same two months last year.

Combined, the reduced prices and sales of single-family homes and condos resulted in $280.5 million in transactions in the first two months of this year, down $318 million or 53.1 percent, from $598.5 million in the same two months last year.

The slow pace of sales inflated a key market measure — months of remaining inventory — to 15.8 for both single-family homes and condos, up from about 10 in January.

Months of remaining inventory — February's inventory divided by January's sales — hasn't been higher than 15.8 since 1998, at the end of the last market slump.

Months of remaining inventory peaked at 24.3 in March 1995 for single-family homes, and 33.2 in March 1997 for condos.

There were 1,928 single-family homes on the market last month, which was four more than February 2008 and 25 more than in January but still below most months last year when closer to 2,100 homes were on the market.

Condo inventory last month was 2,507, up from 2,476 in February 2008 and 2,494 in January but still below most months last year when closer to 2,700 condos were on the market.