"Guilty as charged!"

So said the highest court in the land in the case of Current TV journalists Euna Lee and Laura Ling v. North Korea. The two journalists, who allegedly (and foolishly) wandered across the China-North Korea border on March 17, were tried in the Central Court in Pyongyang and each sentenced to 12 years of "reform through labor." The trial, according to the North's Korean Central News Agency, "confirmed the grave crime they committed against the Korean nation and their illegal border crossing." The important point to note here is that they were not just guilty of "illegal border crossing" — which could more easily be resolved — but of some unspecified "grave crime" as well.

The two women (along with a cameraman and a local guide who both avoided apprehension) went in search of a story; instead they have become the story.

A great deal of ink has been spilled speculating about why the women were arrested and what will be their ultimate fate. The first part is easy. They were arrested because they illegally entered North Korean territory. The timing — in the midst of a missile and nuclear crisis — was pure coincidence. Had there been a more cooperative atmosphere between Pyongyang and the West, they would still have been arrested, tried and convicted, at least on the illegal entry charge and probably for the more grave crime of espionage as well.

From a North Korean perspective, reporters are spies; it matters little if they work for a cable TV station or the CIA. In either case, they are gathering sensitive information that the North wants to withhold or protect. Guilty as charged.

What happens next is the big question, and here the context matters. Were relations between Pyongyang and Washington more cordial, a high-level apology, perhaps accompanied by a promise of increased humanitarian assistance, would probably have resulted in their relatively quick release on "humanitarian grounds," as the U.S. State Department is currently asking Pyongyang to do. But these are not happy times and not because Washington is looking for a fight. North Korea, for its own reasons, has chosen a confrontational path. While the capture has presented Pyongyang with a convenient bargaining chip, it is not clear what the North wants to bargain for.

Some have speculated that the North will try to trade the journalists' release for direct dialogue with Washington. But this was already being offered prior to the various Pyongyang-generated crises. Others have speculated that Pyongyang will try to swap their release for a relaxation of U.N. Security Council sanctions; this is unrealistic. For its part, Washington has been careful about keeping the nuclear crisis and detainee cases separate. "Clearly we don't want this pulled into the political issues we have with North Korea," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently explained, adding that "this is separate. It is a humanitarian issue."

A few things are clear. First, there is no appeal; verdicts by the Central Court are final. Second, the women can expect some period of imprisonment. Ironically, the louder the protests, the longer the likely incarceration — Pyongyang loves nothing better than international attention; it would much rather be hated than ignored. Third, they have not yet been and are not likely to be treated like normal prisoners; they probably will not be put in one of the North's notorious labor camps. This is not because Pyongyang wants to spare them from human suffering but because they do not want to give them access to these camps and their inmates. At some point they will come home and that's one story the North is not prepared to provide.

Finally, Pyongyang alone will determine when that point will be, when it feels it has milked the incident for all it's worth and decides on what reward it can realistically receive for the journalists' release. At that point, North Korea will likely revert to form and welcome a high-level envoy to come apologize in person and will levy some fine or extract some commitment of humanitarian assistance in appreciation for the North's kind gesture.

As co-founder of the Current TV network, former vice president Al Gore seems the most appropriate and likely interlocutor. But such a high-level visitor would mandate a meeting with the North's so-called Dear Leader Kim Jong Il, who is apparently still recovering from a stroke and may not be up to the task. In fact, the rejection of a Gore visit might be a clear signal that Kim really is on his last leg as many speculate.

In the meantime, the challenge for the U.S. will be to continue to maintain a low-key, low-publicity approach toward this humanitarian issue and keep it separated, to the maximum extent possible, from the ongoing nuclear crisis and sanctions regime that is sure to follow.

Ralph Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.