What’s the difference between general managers Mitch Kupchak of the Los Angeles Lakers and Geoff Petrie of the Sacramento Kings? Well, a little over $3 million a win. Wouldn’t seem to be a great time to be Petrie.

Statisticians and fans of all sports have been trying to draw a link between the size of a team’s payroll and success since the early days of pocket calculators. But it’s just not there.
And now, in the midst of NBA free agency, fans are begging their teams to open up the wallets. Let the luxury tax be darned. But if spending were the key, last year’s Eastern Conference finals would have been between the New York Knicks (spent more than $97 million on players) and the Toronto Raptors (a little more than $95 million). Neither made the playoffs.
When it comes to using money wisely, the heroes in spending per win (payroll divided by wins) is pretty obvious: those who go deeper in the playoffs and win the most games. For example, Kupchak’s owner paid a little less than $1 million for each of its 81 wins. Up next was Kevin Pritchard of the Portland Trail Blazers, whose team’s payroll was $1.002 million for each of its 56 wins. And then third most efficient was Orlando’s Otis Smith, who mathematically paid $1,039,767 for each of the Magic’s 72 wins.
Let’s say the Magic had gone to Game 7 in the Finals, the Magic number would have been about $1.011 million a win. Or, if they had won in seven games, the math would have taken them to $998,175 and the Lakers would have had one fewer win and Kupchak would have paid $1.009 million a victory. Smith would then have been the most efficient spender in the league. (The payroll figures used in this study are from the beginning of the season and do not reflect mid-season trades or adjustments.)
The real bargain hunter was probably Pat Riley of the Miami Heat, whose 46 wins only cost $1.087 million a victory.
“There is some real randomness in it,” said Raymond Sauer, a sports economy expert at Clemson University who also runs the sports economist blog. “If the amount of money you spent were the key, the New York Yankees would win every year. There are injuries, team chemistry and a lot of other factors.
“The first principle is the quality of talent is a function of what you do better than everyone else. And bigger payroll doesn’t always translate to player talent.”
And some teams just don’t have the talent. All of which gets back to Petrie, who spent about $4.2 million of the Maloof brothers money to get each of the Kings’ 17 wins. But the Maloofs are gamblers; after all, they do own the Palm Hotel in Las Vegas and are probably accustomed to rolling the dice on many things.
NBA: CASH VALUE PER WIN
Team Payroll — Wins — Avg. per win
Los Angeles Lakers $80,745,793 — 81 — $996,861.64
Portland Trail Blazers $56,154,803 — 56 — $1,002,764.34
Orlando Magic $74,863,198 — 72 — $1,039,766.64
Denver Nuggets $67,068,631 — 64 — $1,047,947.36
Miami Heat $50,031,123 — 46 — $1,087,633.11
Boston Celtics $78,738,973 — 69 — $1,141,144.54
Houston Rockets $68,761,285 — 60— $1,146,021.42
Cleveland Cavaliers $90,794,387 — 76— $1,194,662.99
San Antonio Spurs $68,403,480 — 55 — $1,243,699.64
Atlanta Hawks $68,165,839 — 51 — $1,336,585.08
New Orleans Hornets $67,017,804 — 50 — $1,340,356.08
Utah Jazz $66,266,407 — 49 — $1,352,375.65
Chicago Bulls $71,487,984 — 44 — $1,624,726.91
Phoenix Suns $75,449,279 — 46 — $1,640,201.72
Dallas Mavericks $93,215,017 — 55 — $1,694,818.49
Philadelphia 76ers $74,434,445 — 43 — $1,731,033.60
New Jersey Nets $61,983,445 — 34 — $1,823,042.50
Indiana Pacers $69,623,798 — 36 — $1,933,994.39
Charlotte Bobcats $68,004,277 — 35 — $1,942,979.34
Detroit Pistons $77,046,985 — 39 — $1,975,563.72
Milwaukee Bucks $70,220,238 — 34 — $2,065,301.12
Golden State Warriors $63,287,110 — 29 — $2,182,314.14
Minnesota Timberwolves $63,527,135 — 24 — $2,646,963.96
Oklahoma City Thunder $61,534,722 — 23 — $2,675,422.70
Toronto Raptors $95,358,923 — 33 — $2,889,664.33
New York Knicks $97,085,751 — 32 — $3,033,929.72
Memphis Grizzlies $75,819,691 — 24 — $3,159,153.79
Los Angeles Clippers $61,883,344 — 19 — $3,257,018.11
Washington Wizards $70,558,149 — 19 — $3,713,586.79
Sacramento Kings$71,517,217 — 17 — $4,206,895.12