The Miami Dolphins have enjoyed a storybook season but it likely will have an unhappy ending at home Sunday against the 3 1/2-point favored Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens have an exceptional defense and an underrated offense. Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has played better on the road than at home and Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain are power backs who can help control the clock.

The Dolphins went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 this season. They were opportunistic but seldom dominant. They were 8-8 against the Las Vegas point spread, including 2-6 ATS at home. Quarterback Chad Pennington has played well but he hasn't faced any defensive units like this one.

The Ravens were 12-4 ATS in the regular season, including 6-2 ATS on the road. They're wild-card weekend's "Best Bet": Baltimore 24, Miami 10.

Sunday's other game:

The Philadelphia Eagles have been inconsistent this season but they have the talent to go all the way. They're favored by 3 points against the host Minnesota Vikings.

The big difference in the game should be the quarterbacks: Philadelphia's savvy and experienced Donovan McNabb vs. Minnesota's relatively shaky Tarvaris Jackson.

The Eagles have the rush defense to prevent NFL rushing champion Adrian Peterson from stealing the show. Minnesota has an even better rush defense than Philadelphia but the Eagles have a much better passing game than the Vikings.

The Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and the Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Those trends should continue: Philadelphia 27, Minnesota 13.

Saturday's games

The Arizona Cardinals are much better at home than on the road, but they're 2-point underdogs to the visiting Atlanta Falcons. Why? The Falcons are the better all-around team and the Cardinals haven't had much success against quality opponents.

Atlanta's Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood figure to carry the ball early and often as the Falcons try to take the crowd out of the game. Atlanta can soften up Arizona's suspect defense and rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has the savvy and weapons to produce enough big plays to win the game.

Arizona has an exceptional passing game but the NFL's lowest-rated running attack. Maybe the Cardinals have been conserving the energy of seldom-used former Pro Bowl running back Edgerrin James. If he has a big game left in him, Arizona will have a big chance. But that's probably not going to happen: Atlanta 30, Arizona 24.

The Indianapolis Colts have won nine straight and quarterback Peyton Manning is in MVP form, but their showdown against San Diego is a pick game.

The Chargers underachieved for most of the season but finished fast with four straight clutch victories. The big question mark is LaDainian Tomlinson's health. He looked terrific in last week's romp over Denver before suffering a groin injury late in the game. If he's not close to 100 percent, San Diego would be in trouble.

The two teams are familiar with each other and their three previous meetings in the last two years were decided by 4 points or less: San Diego 23-21 and San Diego 28-24 last season, and Indianapolis 23-20 this season.

Indianapolis is 15-3 straight up in its last 18 road games. San Diego is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games against the Colts.

When in doubt, I'm taking Peyton Manning's team: Indianapolis 28, San Diego 24.

Last week's results: 12-4 picking winning teams outright (161-93-1 this season); 6-9-1 picking winners against the point spread (125-121-7 this season); the "Best Bet" is 9-8 after 8-point favored San Diego beat Denver 52-21.