In 1843, Charles Dickens wrote "A Christmas Carol," where Ebenezer Scrooge meets the "Ghost of Christmas Future," who shows him the drastic consequences of his thoughtless ways.

I asked local futurist Jim Dator and his friends to help me with the "Ghost of Hawai'i's Future." My question: If we don't improve things, what will Hawai'i be like in 2015?

Here's what they said.

Jim Dator, political science professor:

After 30 years of destroying effective governance by slashing taxes and burying families and governments in overwhelming debt, voodoo economics crashed in 2007. A few people remain obscenely rich, while most hang on in disciplined fear. Instead of using the crash to create a sustainable polity, officials steal from future generations to prop up our fantasy economy. It won't work.

A temporary uptick in pseudo-economic indicators and a brief flood of Chinese tourists might lull us into complacency over the next five years, but for the longer term we'll need honesty, courage and palpable hope.

One way or the other, Hawai'i will become self-sufficient — if not by choice, then by necessity.

Roger Davis, software engineer:

We've got rising unemployment and a threadbare state government that knows only how to slash programs. As bad as things are, these are still the good old days. Predicting short-term oil prices is risky, but long term they'll be way up.

Seventy dollars is the new $30 (per barrel) and budget tourism is in permanent decline.

There is sadly no way to replace our main economic engine in the next five years, but prompt action now could make all the difference 20 years out when Honolulu might otherwise make Detroit look like the Emerald City of Oz.

Fred Duennebier, tectonics and geophysics professor:

Christmas 2015, Mom. We would love to visit but there are so few flights. Since groceries are so expensive, we've been growing vegetables in the yard, but the hungry homeless just steal them. We won't be able to pay the mortgage much longer, and soon we'll also be homeless. We pulled the kids out of Punahou and canceled our PV contract. The planned opening of the rail was delayed again for the lack of funding, so we'll car pool with the neighbors while we can; at least there's no more traffic jams. Some Christmas! Love, Fred.

Hilo is hard, Fred. Thank goodness our community garden is doing well — the stores are so low on food. Our neighbor shares an occasional fish, but there aren't many left to fish for. Another wind turbine broke last week. There are no parts being shipped now, so we have rolling blackouts most every day. Too bad geothermal didn't expand while it could. My back bothers me these days, but there are no specialists left here to treat it. Hope 2016 is better! Love, Mom.

Pat Takahashi, retired engineering professor:

Within five years, and certainly 10, the price of oil will skyrocket way past $100 and even $150 a barrel. Hawai'i will still be so dependent on tourism that as the price of jet fuel escalates our visitor count will plummet, perhaps as much as 50 percent, putting Hawai'i's economy into a long-term depression.

It's already too late to diversify Hawai'i's economy. We should protect what's left by stimulating research for a next generation of aircraft and non-fossil jet fuel. We should ask Sen. Inouye and President Obama to initiate a multibillion dollar effort as soon as possible.

Scott Yim, future studies graduate student:

If furloughs continue for the next five years, Hawai'i's students will be more socialized. They will have more time to spend with their friends, parents and role models. Some will improve their test scores. Others will run amok.

Some parents will use the furloughs to spend more time with their kids. Others will enjoy their newfound freedom and opt for child care. Some employers will cut wages. Others will allow workers to bring their kids in.

Teachers will have more time to prepare, and be less stressed. But they may not want to go back to longer hours.

By 2015, everyone will have learned to accept lower standards. Some will have forgotten the higher ones.

FINDING THE ANSWER

What will Hawai'i be like in 2015? How can we mend our ways to improve the prospects? If we examine those prospects, perhaps we can achieve the insight to enjoy a happier Christmas and build a better New Year.

Dickens was right — questioning the future can help us prepare for it, but perhaps we need to be on the brink before we can find an answer.

Jay Fidell is a business lawyer practicing in Honolulu. He has followed tech and tech policy closely and is a founder of ThinkTech Hawaii. Check out his blog at www.HonoluluAdvertiser.com/Blogs