Honolulu's $3.7 billion mass-transit project was not on the ballot yesterday, but it was on the minds of voters and political analysts as the subtext to the mayoral campaign.

The mass-transit project, an elevated steel-on-steel rail design connecting Kapolei to Ala Moana Center, would be the largest public-works effort in Honolulu history. Voters will have the opportunity to consider the project through a ballot question in November, but rail has been the issue that has driven the mayoral campaign.

Mayor Mufi Hannemann fell just under the threshold for re-election last night and will have to contend with a runoff against City Councilmember Ann Kobayashi, who finished second in the primary ahead of University of Hawai'i-Manoa engineering professor Panos Prevedouros.

Hannemann has placed his legacy as mayor and his political popularity on the success of the project, and both Kobayashi and Prevedouros based their underdog challenges on opposing the steel-on-steel design in favor of alternatives to combat traffic congestion.

"There is no doubt the mayor has made it one of his key projects, something that's going to impact generations to come. It is an issue that he strongly supported and put his reputation on and invested in," said state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, D-24th (Manoa), who voted for Hannemann and favors the rail project.

"We're talking about an investment here. Not for just one or two generations. We're talking a hundred years out. And that does require statesmanship, by the way. To get a politician to say, 'I'm going to do something that I'm not going to be around to benefit from as the mayor,' it's real statesmanship."

Dan Douglass, a Salt Lake Realtor associate and the campaign coordinator for Stop Rail Now, a group fighting the rail project, said a runoff combined with the ballot question will increase the attention on rail.

"(Hannemann) has to defend himself," he said. "Of course, strategically, we're in a better position. It means more debates. It means more discussion. It means more forums for the public to become educated."

Dean Okimoto, Hannemann's campaign chairman, said rail was always going to be a contentious issue. "We're confident that the people really want it," he said. "It would have made it easier if he had won and we could concentrate on the rail issue, but if we've got to do both, we'll do both."

CONFLICTED OVER RAIL

Many voters said they are struggling with rail and, while many see the logic behind the project, they worry about the cost and the disruption from construction.

"I've heard all sides of the issue and I'm still pretty much undecided," Edileo Alcalde, who lives in Kalihi and is studying to be an engineer, said as he was leaving his precinct at Farrington High School. "I'm for it because it could alleviate a lot of the traffic on O'ahu. But, I'm not for it because the construction would take so much time, and the money to build it is a big factor."

Eric Brown, of Mililani, said he voted for Hannemann even though he differs with him on rail. "I think Mufi's doing a good job. I disagree with him on rail. And I don't like the way they went about it — shoving it down our throats, quite frankly. But, otherwise, he's doing fine. I think everyone's got a right to their opinion."

Although lower voter turnout generally favors incumbents, the poor turnout yesterday likely depressed Hannemann's vote total.

With more than $3 million in campaign money and high job approval ratings, Hannemann was heavily favored to win re-election, so his more casual supporters had less incentive to vote in the primary than voters who preferred Kobayashi or Prevedouros.

Grassroots organizing by anti-rail activists also likely helped Kobayashi and Prevedouros by motivating a portion of the electorate that might otherwise have skipped the primary. Independents and conservatives moved by issues such taxation and the size of government, for example, had no obvious choice in the race but may have been lured toward one of the challengers because of the rail debate.

Since both Kobayashi and Prevedouros entered the campaign late and did not have widespread name recognition, much of their support came from voters disappointed with Hannemann's leadership or opposed to the rail project or a combination of both.

'ANYBODY-BUT-MUFI'

Several political observers said privately that despite Hannemann's high approval ratings, the mayor upset enough people during his first four-year term that a generic "anybody-but-Mufi" candidate would start with over a third of the vote. In that sense, Kobayashi and Prevedouros diluted the anti-Hannemann vote and fragmented rail opponents.

Their most significant tactical mistake, however, was not launching their campaigns with enough time to adequately introduce themselves to voters and broaden their differences with Hannemann on issues other than rail.

But by forcing a runoff, Kobayashi exceeded expectations and now has several weeks to build momentum.

"For a candidate like Kobayashi, the storyline shifts in her favor for a while," said Neal Milner, an ombudsman at UH-Manoa, who believes Kobayashi needs to do more to distinguish herself from Hannemann.

Lower voter turnout also suggests that the campaigns were ineffective at identifying and delivering their voters. Voter registration increased just 1.8 percent statewide over 2006, driven mostly by the Neighbor Islands, especially the Big Island — with 6 percent growth — which observers believe shows either a lack of interest in local races this year or a sign the state is close to registering most people engaged by politics.

The registration numbers remained low even with the record turnout in the February Democratic caucuses because of the intensity of the contest between Hawai'i-born U.S. Sen. Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Voter turnout was more positive on the Big Island, which had a more competitive mayoral campaign, showing that voter behavior can be influenced by the nature of the campaigns.

Turnout usually increases in the general election and, with Obama the Democrats' presidential nominee, local Democrats are predicting a significant surge in voter interest.

Staff writers Will Hoover and Kevin Dayton contributed to this report.