honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser
Updated at 12:20 p.m., Thursday, October 23, 2008

Fantasy football: Ignore logic, give Peyton the fantasy start

By JOHN McFARLAND
Associated Press

It sure seems time for Peyton Manning to hit the bench for your fantasy football team, based on the Colts' recent dreadfulness and the scariness of a Titans defense that has allowed just one touchdown pass.

But you shouldn't bench him. Why not? Because he's Peyton Manning, and you just don't bench Peyton Manning. If that well-reasoned logic isn't enough for you, consider his history.

Last week was the first time since 2001 that he went scoreless in a loss (not counting end-of-season games when he wasn't trying). After that 2001 game, his superior football brain processed his on-field malfunctions and he came back to pass for 325 yards and 3 TDs.

The last time Manning looked ready to flop was just a few weeks ago, when he put three TDs on the Ravens' No. 1 defense. And Manning always does well in Tennessee. His last four games there have included two 300-yard games, a four-touchdown game and a three-score game.

The last thing Manning has going for him is something fantasy dorks understand all too well: The NFL's about the most random game this side of bingo. Every week bad teams beat good teams, bad guys do good things, etc. So Manning's due for goodness, unbeaten Tennessee for badness.

As you quietly chastise yourself for ever doubting Manning, here's a look at some players to start in Week 8, some to avoid and a handful of long shots who just may pan out:

QUARTERBACKS:

A SAFE BET

—This seems a good time to bench Arizona's Kurt Warner, considering he's on the road against the Panthers' second-ranked pass defense, but he's unbelievably dependable with two or more TDs in 13 of his last 14 games.

—For most of last week it looked like Cleveland's Derek Anderson was back to being terrible (40 yards heading into the fourth quarter), but he should log his second good game of the season against the Jaguars' surprisingly bad pass defense (11 TDs allowed).

—Who would've guessed at the start of the season that Jeff Garcia would be the best QB going when the Bucs played the Cowboys? Look for more video of perplexed Dallas defensive backs shrugging at each other near the end zone.

—Struggling J.T. O'Sullivan gets the perfect chance to impress new San Francisco coach Mike Singletary. Seattle's No. 29 pass defense has allowed 10 TDs and intercepted just one pass. (Wonder if he'll try to make really intense faces to impress Singletary.)

—Buffalo's Trent Edwards has yet to throw more than one touchdown in a game this year, but he didn't miss much last week and in his last game against Miami he had a career-high four TDs.

TAKE A SHOT

—Maybe Dan Orlovsky can make Detroit the next winless team to topple Washington. After all, Orlovsky had more TDs last week (1) than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre combined.

BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT

Please, in the name of Jim Sorgi, don't start these guys:

—The Giants' Eli Manning tends to get rattled by pressure, which will be in no short supply against the Steelers' No. 1 pass defense that has posted an NFL-high 25 sacks.

—The Jets' Brett Favre will have to wait awhile to redeem himself for last week's shoddy game because he'll run the handoff-only offense against Kansas City. (Should fantasy points against KC really count? They just come so easy.)

—Barring time travel back to about 1997, don't expect Dallas backup Brad Johnson to be much better than he was last week. He's even facing a good defense this time.

RUNNING BACKS:

ALL DAY LONG

—Keep starting LaDainian Tomlinson even though he's been held under 70 yards in most games, because those are just his North American stats. He's never been held to such lowly figures in England, where his Chargers face New Orleans. (Plus, like Manning, you never bench LT.)

—Overthinker Alert: Don't bench Marion Barber, even though Dallas has been Detroit-like lately, has no passing attack to keep defenses honest and faces a Tampa Bay defense that still hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown.

—Overthinker Alert II: Don't fear anybody in Pittsburgh. Go with Willie Parker or Mewelde Moore (whoever's starting) against the Giants' defense that has allowed just two TDs rushing. And the Giants' Brandon Jacobs is always a must start, even against Pittsburgh's No. 2 run defense.

—There's been a Willis McGahee sighting in Baltimore. Apparently recovered from knee surgery and a poked eyeball, he had his first game over 100 yards with a TD last week. Now he gets Oakland's 24th-ranked run defense that made Thomas Jones look 24 last week.

—Speaking of Jones, this week could make up for all that remorse over drafting him. His Jets face the Chiefs, who rank last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (207 a game), TDs (12), 20-yard runs (14) and 40-yard runs (4).

HE COULD FIND A SEAM

—The Saints' Deuce McAllister will get more touches with Reggie Bush out, and his straight-ahead style could work well if weather gets ugly in London.

RED FLAGS

—OK, OK, we get it, Dolphins. You're going to snap it straight to Ronnie Brown and hijinks will ensue. Problem is, defenses are figuring out those hijinks. (He had 238 yards and 5 TDs the first two games the gag was used, but 77 yards and one score in the past two games.)

—It might be tempting to start Seattle's Julius Jones, with the run-defense-challenged 49ers in town. But remember he's back to sharing carries with Maurice Morris, and the 49ers have no reason at all to respect the Seattle passing game.

—It's a good idea to pick up Oakland's Justin Fargas after his 28-carry game last week, just leave him on the bench against Baltimore's top-ranked run defense (67 yards a game).

WIDE RECEIVERS:

THROW HIM THE DARN BALL!

—Santana Moss' loves the long ball, and Detroit's porous 31st-ranked pass defense has given up a league-high seven passes over 40 yards. And the Redskins probably learned their lesson about taking winless teams lightly.

—The Giants' Plaxico Burress hasn't hit 100 yards since the opener, but he'd love to have a huge game against his former teammates in Pittsburgh. Perhaps Eli Manning can get in a few long passes between sacks.

—Speaking of Pittsburgh, Hines Ward is clearly back as the main guy there. He has five TDs in six games, and he's worth even more if your league awards points for crushing blocks that knock guys out.

—Antonio Bryant was supposed to have big games at Texas Stadium after the Cowboys drafted him in 2002, but not for another team after wandering the league as a journeyman. He's had two 100-yard games, the first time that's happened since 2006.

—With Reggie Bush no longer catching all the New Orleans passes and Marques Colston no longer catching anything, it could be a good day for Devery Henderson (weather permitting). He's had at least 80 yards in three of his last four games.

MAYBE THROW HIM THE DARN BALL?

—Philadelphia's Kevin Curtis is coming back from the dreaded sports hernia and could have a big day catching passes from fellow sports hernia alum Donovan McNabb.

SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH

—T.O. stands for Two Only these days, and he may not even catch that many passes with the ineffective Brad Johnson under center for Dallas. (Now we know why Terrell Owens cried while defending Tony Romo last year.)

—Anquan Boldin should return for Arizona, but given the severity of his injury, it's probably a good idea to keep him on your bench until you're certain he's all the way back.

—It was nice, just for old times sake, to see Derrick Mason get a TD last week. But the Ravens won't need to throw against Oakland.

FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST:

Pick up these guys if they're available in your league: Saints RB Deuce McAllister (probably featured guy), Bucs QB Jeff Garcia (310 yards, TD, starting job back), Raiders RB Justin Fargas (28 carries), Lions RB Kevin Smith (TD), Rams WR Donnie Avery (TD), Chargers WR Malcolm Floyd (65 yards, TD), Lions WR Mike Furrey (6 catches, 89 yards in first game without Roy Williams), Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (not hurt, cool name), 49ers WR Josh Morgan (86 yards, TD), Ravens QB Joe Flacco (actually hit 200 yards passing, TD).

OFF THIS WEEK: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota.

WHAT DO I KNOW?

Here's the best and worst of last week's projections:

Big Hits: I was right that Ryan Grant (105 yards, TD) would hit both triple digits and the end zone for the first time. I also expected success from Mewelde Moore (120 yards rushing, 3 TDs), Dominic Rhodes (111 total yards, 2 TDs), Lee Evans (8 catches, 89 yards, TD), Matt Schaub (2 TDs) and Jake Delhomme (2 TDs).

Big Misses: I expected little from Matt Cassel (3 TDs). Who knew Thomas Jones had a 159-yard game in him? I was sort of right about benching Calvin Johnson because he only caught 2 passes, but he also had 154 yards and a score. I swore off both Bengals WRs, but each caught 8 passes and one scored. I expected good things from Ronnie Brown (27 yards), Muhsin Muhammad (43 yards) and Marvin Harrison (2 catches).