A higher percentage of voters than ever are expected to cast absentee ballots ahead of Election Day on Nov. 4, forcing candidates across the Islands to recalibrate their campaigns.

Hawai'i continues to trail much of the country in voter turnout. But as a proportion of the total turnout, more people in Hawai'i are choosing to vote by mail or show up at advance polling places, which opened yesterday.

In the 1992 primary election, only 9.2 percent of the 251,576 voters cast absentee ballots. In this year's primary, fewer people — 246,299 — actually voted. But a record 38.6 percent of them cast absentee ballots.

And with Hawai'i-born Barack Obama running for president in the general election, the percentage of absentee votes is expected to jump even higher.

"We're going to continue to see the percentage of absentee ballots increase year over year," said Brian Schatz, chairman of the Democratic Party of Hawai'i. "We'll break 40 (percent) in the general. And we're coming real close to 50 percent one day."

Obama is encouraging people across the country to vote early.

"Turnout is exceptionally important to him," said Neal Milner, a University of Hawai'i political science professor. "Any way you can encourage people to vote, the percentages are in his favor."

Paul Stoeck of Mililani showed up at Honolulu Hale yesterday for the first day of walk-in, absentee voting and was in and out within 15 minutes.

Then he went fishing.

"This is my third or fourth time for early voting," said Stoeck, 65. "I always come early. It's just a lot easier and quicker. It's enjoyable. I had my mind made up a month ago, and it didn't change."

Dolores Biroan, 72, took time off from her job Downtown to cast her ballot.

"This is probably my third time voting early," she said. "On Election Day, I'll go to the beach or just cruise around. Doing it early is quicker."

For the candidates, early voting has brought costly changes in campaign strategy, Milner said.

"Because there's no longer one certain (election) day, it makes campaigning different," he said. "It's harder on the campaigns to figure out their message."

'JAMMED UP' CAMPAIGNS

As Ira Rohter, an associate professor in political science at UH, put it, "absentee voting has jammed up the campaigns."

"It's had a big effect because the campaigns used to be designed to get materials out over a certain sequence of time and then they peak," Rohter said. "You now have to get a lot of material out over a longer time."

Before absentee voters became such a factor, Rohter said, candidates typically sent initial "warm and fuzzy" messages about who they were, followed up by their stances on issues and — sometimes — last-minute, hard-hitting messages jabbing at their opponents.

"Now you have to almost design a double campaign," he said. "They have to spend more money to get their message out earlier. They have to have an e-mail distribution system, and tie into the cell phone text messaging. They have to shoot a lot and then reload."

All that forces candidates to seek more money to pay for their expanded campaigns, Rohter said.

Schatz said absentee voting trend has contributed to more forthright campaigning, starting two election cycles ago.

"Yes, you have to peak twice: Once, when the absentee voters start pouring in and once on Election Day," Schatz said. "But one of the positive effects is the last-minute smear only reaches 60 percent of the voters. If you want to do an attack ad, you have to move it up earlier, which gives your opponent time to respond — which means your attack better be legitimate."

STEADY INCREASES

The number of overall votes in Hawai'i has dipped and jumped between primaries and general elections over the years. But no matter how many people actually vote, the percentage of absentee voters has steadily increased.

If Oregon's experience is indicative, voter participation may actually increase with greater absentee voting.

In 1998, 69 percent of Oregon voters cast ballots in favor of abolishing polling places altogether and adopting a totally mail-in voting system. Turnout in Oregon has since jumped in several election cycles.

Rex Quidilla, of the state Office of Elections, said Hawai'i's absentee pattern follows the general trend of people looking for ways to deal with their busier lives.

"It is more convenient," he said.

Lost in the process is a slice of Americana: masses of concerned voters gathering to decide their futures on a single day.

"I remember going down and seeing people standing around talking about the politics of their community," Rohter said, talking of past elections. "It was the tradition of people coming together as a community. This last primary, it was desolate."