WAIMEA — From his lifeguard tower at Waimea Bay, Kerry Atwood looked out over an ocean that was as calm as a bathtub this week but will begin pounding the North Shore as early as tomorrow afternoon with the first big waves of the winter — drawing even more crowds to an area that has stayed busy despite a sluggish economy.

Atwood, an Ocean Safety Officer II, and the other lifeguards along O'ahu's North Shore will kick into another gear tomorrow when the National Weather Service forecasts that waves of 10 to 12 feet will start rising from the ocean, growing to as big as 15 feet by Sunday.

Atwood has stood watch over Waimea Bay for 19 years and struggled to remember a summer as busy as the last, with up to 2,000 people per day and even as many as 1,000 this Wednesday, during a week when a lot of students on year-round schedules had a break from public school.

"We've definitely had some record-setting days," Atwood said. "I noticed a little bit of a slowdown since Labor Day, but not nearly as much as I expected."

Despite a downturn in Hawai'i tourism and an overall sluggish economy, North Shore beaches have remained busy even during the traditionally slow "shoulder season" in between summer and the holidays.

Many businesses have continued to enjoy healthy sales precisely because of the bad times, said Antya Miller, executive director of the North Shore Chamber of Commerce.

In a curious twist, the theory along the North Shore is that both budget-conscious tourists and local residents are drawn to the leisurely pace and free beaches of the North Shore.

"Definitely, definitely," said Glenn Kamai, a nightclub bouncer who took his growing family on a leisurely drive to Waimea Bay from Waimanalo this week. "We're just cruising. It's nice out."

With three children and another due in two weeks, Kamai couldn't afford his usual family vacation of a Neighbor Island visit or a trip to Las Vegas or Disney World this year.

"Everything's tight," he said. "But the beach — it's free."

Studies for the Hawai'i Tourism Authority found that 51 percent of overnight tourists to O'ahu ventured out to the North Shore in winter 2003 and summer 2005, resulting in an estimated 2.4 million visitors.

This summer, many North Shore businesses saw sales up over 10 percent compared to last year, Miller said. Some of them deal in less-expensive items and others have made smart business decisions such as consolidating different operations into one location, she said.

For more on this story, see tomorrow's edition of The Advertiser.