Democrats predicted before their party's caucuses in February that Hawai'i's turnout would double or even triple the previous record of about 5,000 voters.

More than 37,000 voters showed up.

Political analysts do not foresee another unexpected wave of voters on Tuesday, since a general election is far larger in scale and has a more conventional voting pattern than a party caucus. But there is some uncertainty about voter turnout because of the potential influence thousands of new or infrequent voters may have on state House and Senate campaigns and ballot questions on Honolulu's $3.7 billion rail project and a state Constitutional Convention.

In early voting, which ended yesterday afternoon, a record 69,655 voters cast ballots statewide. On O'ahu, the state's population center, 39,591 voters cast ballots early, surpassing the previous high of more than 29,000 in 2004.

According to the state Office of Elections, yesterday was the busiest day of early voting.

Hawai'i-born U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is expected to do well in the Islands against U.S. Sen. John McCain in the presidential race. If Obama drives turnout higher, it would likely have a positive impact on Demo-cratic candidates down the ballot. But it is less certain exactly how Obama Democrats might split on rail and a Constitutional Convention.

The Hawai'i Poll conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 21 for The Advertiser and KGMB9 shows the rail question may be close, a finding matched by private polls. Labor unions have invested heavily in advertising opposing a Constitutional Convention, suggesting that question, too, may be closer than expected.

Democrats and Republicans are estimating that voter turnout will be higher Tuesday than the last presidential election in 2004, when turnout was 66.7 percent of registered voters.

HIGHER TURNOUT

Early voting can be a sign of voter interest but may not correspond to higher turnout overall, since more traditional voters may be changing their behavior and voting early for convenience rather than on Election Day.

Dan Boylan, a University of Hawai'i-West O'ahu history professor and political analyst, believes turnout will increase substantially this year because of Obama, who was born in Honolulu and graduated from Punahou School.

"I can't believe that it's not going to be high. The state has never had a native son running for president of the United States," Boylan said. "I think an awful lot of people are going to come out to vote for him.

"It's not going to get up to the statehood levels or anything like that, but it's going to be very high. It's just excitement over a local guy."

Voter turnout was 93.1 percent in 1960 for the first presidential election after statehood in 1959. Turnout in presidential election years remained strong before slipping in the mid-1990s. It bumped up again in 2004 after a late push by Democrats for U.S. Sen. John Kerry against President Bush.

Turnout is also traditionally larger in general elections than in primaries.

Boylan believes young people, especially, will turn out in higher numbers this year. "We're going to see so many more younger voters. I'm just certain of that," he said. "I've never seen so much enthusiasm among younger voters."

Boylan and other analysts believe higher turnout among Obama Democrats will likely help rail but not the Constitutional Convention. Activists say private polls have the Constitutional Convention closer on O'ahu, particularly in urban Honolulu, than on the Neighbor Islands, where Democrats are stronger.

Dan Douglass, who is involved with Stop Rail Now, said it is hard to say how Obama Democrats might break on rail, although he suspects they might favor the project. Traditional Democrats may support rail because it is backed by U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye and the state's congressional delegation and labor unions. New or infrequent voters motivated primarily by the presidential race, meanwhile, may not have given as much thought to other candidates or ballot questions.

Turnout on O'ahu may also be influenced by voters who are more interested in rail and the runoff between Mayor Mufi Hannemann and City Councilwoman Ann Kobayashi than presidential politics. The focus on rail during last week's mayoral debate, and the late release of portions of the draft environmental impact statement for the project, has kept the rail question at the top of the news in the final days before the vote.

"I think there is greater passion on our side, especially now with the downturn in the economy," Douglass said, referring to concerns about the cost of the project.

GOP STAYS OPTIMISTIC

Willes Lee, chairman of the state GOP, does not necessarily agree with the conventional wisdom that higher turnout would damage Republican House and Senate candidates. He said new or infrequent voters, especially those motivated by rail or the Constitutional Convention, may be more open-minded about Republicans than traditional voters who have consistently supported majority Democrats.

"Obviously, we hope that regardless of whether they come out for the national race, that locally people have to vote for the person that's going to represent their district best, and we think that's our people," he said.

Both Lee and Andy Winer, state director for the Obama campaign, said the presumption that Obama has such a commanding lead in the Islands may lead some potential Obama voters to skip the election.

Winer said Obama's margin of victory in Hawai'i — which has four electoral votes — may be higher than any other state and second only to the District of Columbia.

But Winer worries about what would happen to turnout if the presidential race is called early on the Mainland. Democratic candidates would get less of a bounce from Obama if turnout slips because voters think the presidential race is over.

"That would screw us up," Winer said. "I'm concerned about that. I'm hoping that nobody is conceding or claiming victory so early in the day that it's going to suppress turnout here."