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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Monday, June 30, 2008

Less air, road travel forecast for July 4th holiday

By Larry Copeland and Alan Levin
USA Today

Fewer Americans than last year will be driving and flying during this week's Fourth of July holiday, travel experts say.

The number of people driving 50 or more miles from home will drop 1.2 percent to about 34.2 million, reflecting the continued impact of high gasoline prices, auto club AAA said.

The drop follows a similar decline over the Memorial Day holiday and is the first time this decade that AAA has forecast smaller numbers of people taking driving vacations on consecutive holidays.

"Clearly, gas prices are continuing to take a toll on the traveler's budget, but the travel industry is responding, as they have in the past, with discounts, promotions and other incentives to get people traveling this holiday," said AAA President and CEO Robert Darbelnet.

AAA expects 4.54 million Americans to fly during the holiday, a 2.3 percent decrease from the 4.64 million who flew last year.

But the airlines cautioned travelers to prepare for congested skies. "You can expect airplanes to be full over the holiday," said David Castelveter, spokesman for the Air Transport Association, which represents large airlines. "If there's weather, there will be delays."

Those driving probably will find the going easier. AAA's projection of a decline in automobile travel reflects the findings of a poll this month by Eons.com, a social networking site for Baby Boomers.

The survey of more than 750 members, taken June 5-19, found that 38 percent have canceled or postponed a trip this summer because of gas prices; 23 percent of those planning to travel have changed their destinations to stay closer to home.

Dale Conover, 50, of Glendale, Ariz., and his wife, Karen, had planned to visit family in Amarillo, Texas, during the holiday. Not now.

"We'll do some short trips, all in Arizona, and we might go to Las Vegas," said Conover, a water utility engineer. "We would go later if gas prices fell, but probably not this year."

AAA spokesman Troy Green said that in addition to driving shorter distances, Americans will compensate for high gas prices by taking trips of shorter duration — two or three days instead of four or five — and by seeking cheaper accommodations.

Air travelers should hope for clear skies. This time of year, most airport delays stem from thunderstorms across the Midwest and East Coast.

If those storms hit congested air corridors between Chicago, New York and Washington, they can wreak havoc on schedules.

One small consolation for travelers: The July Fourth week is not one of the busiest periods during the otherwise frenetic summer flying season, according to airline schedule data from the Official Airline Guide.

The 20,141 scheduled airline flights in the continental states July 4 are among the fewest of any day so far this year.