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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Fed unlikely to change interest rates

By Jeannine Aversa
Associated Press Economics Writer

Hawaii news photo - The Honolulu Advertiser

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a dilemma: Cut interest rates and risk boosting inflation or raise rates and undermine the fragile U.S. economy.

ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE PHOTO | April 2007

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WASHINGTON — Straddling risky economic crosscurrents, the Federal Reserve is expected to stand still this week on interest rates.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues, who open a two-day meeting today, are in a tricky spot: They are faced with stuck-in-a-rut economic growth along with inflation threats from rising prices for energy, food and other commodities. Fed officials have made clear that because of concern about inflation, they're not inclined to cut rates further. At the same time, they have recognized that pushing rates up too soon could undermine an economy buffeted by housing, credit and financial woes.

"These are very challenging waters to navigate," said economist Richard Yamarone at Argus Research.

Against that backdrop, the Fed is almost certain to hold its key interest rate steady at 2 percent when it wraps up its session tomorrow. If that's the case, the prime lending rate for millions of consumers and businesses would stay at 5 percent. The prime rate applies to certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other loans.

Wall Street investors and a few economists believe inflation problems might force the Fed to start boosting rates in August or later this year.

However, many others think that's a situation the Fed would like to avoid — especially given that the housing market is still flailing and foreclosures are at record highs.

Mortgage rates are already rising — spurred higher by investors' concerns about inflation.

And, those higher rates spell yet more headaches for the problem-plagued housing market.

"It's an extremely hard place for the Fed," said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.

So what's the Fed to do?

"Tread lightly on rates and carry a big rhetorical anti-inflation stick," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

In a string of speeches over the past few weeks, Bernanke and his colleagues have been doing just that. They've ramped up their tough anti-inflation talk to rein in inflation expectations of consumers, investors and businesses. If those groups think prices will keep on rising, they'll act in ways that can worsen inflation.

Consumer prices in the first five months of this year have risen at an annual rate of 4 percent. That's down from a 4.1 percent increase last year — the biggest jump in 17 years — but is still too high for the Fed's liking. Gasoline prices and oil prices have set a string of record highs.

Economists predict the Fed's policy statement, released tomorrow, probably will go further in highlighting inflation risks but won't go as far as to signal a rate increase at the Fed's next meeting on Aug. 5.