McCain, Huckabee split voters in S. Carolina heading into primary
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By Steven Thomma
McClatchy-Tribune News Service
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COLUMBIA, S.C. — John McCain and Mike Huckabee are neck and neck heading into tomorrow's Republican primary in South Carolina, where the outcome could hinge on a bloc of undecided evangelical voters, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.
And a little more than week before South Carolina Democrats vote Jan. 26, Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton by 9 points, with John Edwards far behind in his native state. The poll, by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, was taken Monday through Wednesday and has an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
As in earlier contests, significant numbers of voters are unsure, and the campaigns remain volatile. Almost 1 in 10 likely Republican voters said they were still undecided, as were 15 percent of likely Democratic voters. And one-third of those Republicans who did express support for candidates said they might change their minds in the final hours, as did 22 percent of Democrats.
REPUBLICANS
The survey showed a battle between McCain, an Arizona senator, and Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, for the lead. It also revealed a close struggle for third between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
The biggest bloc of undecided voters are evangelical Christians.
The numbers:
McCain draws his strongest support from those older than 50, men, non-evangelicals, non-Republicans and those looking for a leader who can keep the country safe. He's campaigned as a war hero who knows how to lead the country during wartime, appealing to veterans in a pro-military state.
He had a 2-1 advantage over Huckabee among non-Republicans, a nearly 4-1 advantage among non-evangelicals and a 2-1 edge over Huckabee and Romney among voters who say the quality they seek most in a candidate is leadership.
Huckabee draws his greatest support from voters looking for a candidate who shares their values, where he had a 2-1 edge over Thompson, a better advantage over Romney and a nearly 3-1 advantage over McCain.
Huckabee had an edge among evangelical voters, but not the lopsided margin he's had in other states, winning 33 percent of them to McCain's 20 percent, Thompson's 15 percent and Romney's 13 percent.
"It's a little more spread around here," said Brad Coker, the managing partner of Mason-Dixon.
The poll suggests that evangelicals remain key swing voters heading into the primary. There were more undecided evangelicals, 11 percent, than non-evangelical voters, 4 percent, for a ratio of 3-1.
"It's a tossup," Coker said. "If Huckabee pulls this out, it will be because the rest of the evangelicals went for him. If McCain pulls this out, it will be because they went on other issues like national security."
DEMOCRATS
The poll underscored a racial divide in the state, the first with a large African-American population to vote in this year's Democratic campaign.
It showed Obama, an Illinois senator, leading among African-Americans by a better than 2-1 ratio. Clinton, a New York senator, led among whites by 2-1.
Democratic "voters are breaking along racial lines," Coker said. "Racial voting patterns are going to play a major role."
Edwards, a white man, was a distant third in his native state.
The poll showed more than half the likely vote coming from African-Americans — 54-43 percent — and a bigger female turnout than male, 59-41 percent.
