Like so much in politics, the issue of publicly financed campaigns may finally come down to money.

Supporters of publicly financed elections are looking to the Big Island, hoping County Council members there and the county's lobbyist will lead the effort at the state Legislature this year to establish a system of publicly financed elections for that island's nine council races.

The Big Island council last month became the first elected body in Hawai'i to volunteer to try out the proposed new system, a step that could lead to Hawai'i's first fully publicly funded campaigns there in 2010.

The plan is to provide enough public funding to each qualifying council candidate to run a credible campaign without accepting any campaign contributions from special interests. To qualify for public funding, each candidate would have to collect a signature and a $5 donation from 200 registered voters.

The plan has some popular appeal, but Campaign Spending Commission Executive Director Barbara Wong offers some sobering cost calculations: If 50 candidates qualify for public funding in the council primary election, the primary alone would cost about $1 million.

The final cost of the Big Island test might be considerably higher than $1 million because that total does not include the cost of the general election or any "equalizing funds" that might be distributed. Equalizing funds are handed out to publicly funded candidates to keep them competitive with high-spending opponents who have declined public funding.

That means even a pilot program in one county could cost a bundle. Publicly funded campaign systems have increased the number of candidates running for office in other states, so the 50-candidate scenario on the Big Island isn't far-fetched.

Officially, the Campaign Spending Commission is neutral on the issue, but Wong said she sees no great public demand for the program, and wonders whether taxpayers will be willing to pay for it.

"I'm saying, don't test drive the car if you can't possibly afford it," she said. "We'll just testify that it has to be adequately funded, and for more than just a year. You have got to have that money to buy the car. If you don't have the money, then why are you even test driving it, especially when that test drive is going to cost you money?"

A HARD SELL

State lawmakers warn that any potentially expensive new program will encounter resistance at the Legislature this year. With state tax collections growing more slowly than they have been, this is not seen as a good time to take on new financial obligations, and that could hurt the chances for passage of the Big Island public campaign financing proposal.

For the past eight years, supporters lobbied unsuccessfully for some form of publicly financed elections, also known in some states as "Clean Elections," so the objections aren't surprising.

Kory Payne, community organizer for Voter Owned Hawaii, said the idea is popular with voters and lawmakers know that.

"The interesting thing about this issue is that everybody likes to say publicly that they support it, and they like to say publicly that they voted in favor of it, but when it comes to pushing for it behind the scenes where the real deal making goes on, then it's hard to find real champions," Payne said.

The appeal of public financing grows out of public frustration with politics, Payne said. Ordinary people believe the problems confronting their communities have solutions, but don't see those solutions being implemented.

Supporters contend publicly funded elections will help restore faith in the political system, increase the number of candidates running, and boost Hawai'i's low voter turnout.

While data from other states clearly show more candidates run when their campaigns are publicly funded, the effect on voter turnout is less clear.

According to a report last year by the Connecticut Office of Legislative Research, turnout among voting-age residents in states such as Maine, Vermont and Arizona with publicly funded elections tends to be 4 percent to 6 percent higher than the national average, and generally did increase after public campaign financing programs were established.

However, the voter participation in those states still remained below the levels of the early 1990s, which suggests the impact of the program on voter turnout isn't dramatic.

Wong said there are some other side-effects of publicly funded elections that ought to be considered.

One pattern has been increased spending by non-candidate committees, which may allow private money to seep into some publicly funded races. Non-candidate committees are not linked with any campaigns, but they can buy ads that help particular candidates, which allows private money to influence publicly funded contests.

National research also suggests that as public funding attracts more candidates, the chances that incumbents face competitive races increase.

"Some legislators have actually told us point blank, 'I don't want this because it will create more competition for me,' " Payne said.

Other critics, such as state Sen. Sam Slom, R-8th (Kahala, Hawai'i Kai), say the arguments in favor of publicly funded elections make no sense.

"What you'd get would be the same pool of politicians who would now be able to get money a lot easier because they wouldn't have to compete for it," Slom said. "I don't see how burdening the taxpayers even more and having them paying for politicians, when (taxpayers) have a hard time paying for their mortgages and their food and their healthcare, is going to make the government any better."

COST IS CRITICAL

Lawmakers say this year the most critical consideration may be cost.

Under the Big Island proposal, the amount distributed to each publicly funded candidate would be calculated by averaging how much the winners spent in that district in the past two election cycles. The publicly funded candidates would then be given 90 percent of that amount.

Wong estimates each qualified publicly funded candidate would receive an average of about $20,700 for the Big Island council primaries, but the commission has not yet calculated the amounts that would be distributed for the general election.

There is no way to tell yet how much might be distributed in "equalizing funds," given out to make sure publicly funded candidates stay competitive with privately financed candidates.

The state House last year unanimously approved House Bill 661 HD 1, which would establish public campaign financing for all of the county councils. That measure stalled in the Senate Judiciary and Labor Committee last year. Supporters hope to have the bill approved this year to allow public financing to be tested on the Big Island.

Senate Judiciary Chairman Brian Taniguchi said he has been supportive of public campaign financing, but isn't sure how he or his colleagues will handle the bill. He said there are concerns about tightening state finances.

"Our revenue picture doesn't look as bright as it did maybe a year or two ago," he said.

A spokesman for Senate President Colleen Hanabusa said Hanabusa has supported publicly funded elections, and advanced a bill to set up such a system when she was chairwoman of the Judiciary Committee. The issue has always been how to pay for the program, the spokesman said.

The pilot project would be funded out of the Hawai'i Election Campaign Fund, which is financed by voluntary contributions from state taxpayers who check a box on their tax returns each year. The fund now has a balance of about $6.5 million, which Payne said is far more than would be needed.

Reach Kevin Dayton at kdayton@honoluluadvertiser.com.