A state goal of obtaining 70 percent of energy from renewable resources may be too ambitious, with most scenarios studied by consultants showing Hawai'i falling short of reaching that mark by the year 2030.

Initial presentations by two consultants hired by the state show Hawai'i has enormous opportunities when it comes to renewable energy, but that meeting its target will be difficult and not without many changes in the way we consume and generate electricity, gasoline and other energy sources.

"It's a big goal, but it's the right goal," said Steve Bretschneider, chief marketing officer for the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism and a member of a team within the agency that's working to wean the state from it's dependence on oil.

"We have to make it easy to conserve and convert. As a result of that, our economy and our environment will benefit substantially."

In January Gov. Linda Lingle and the U.S. Department of Energy announced the Hawai'i Clean Energy Initiative under which the state and federal government would work to transform the state into a showplace for renewable energy. The partners set a target of having clean energy power 70 percent of energy needs in the next 22 years.

Hawai'i has been the most vulnerable state to rising crude oil prices because it gets about 85 percent of its energy from petroleum. At the same time, planners say the state is one of the best positioned to transition to renewable sources because of its wind, sun, ocean, geothermal and bioenergy assets. The U.S. Department of Energy dispatched Deputy Assistant Secretary William Parks to Hawai'i to work with state officials.

Within DBEDT, more than half a dozen people are working on the project full time. And the state has benefited from its partnership with the Energy Department in being able to call for help from government-funded research institutes such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The state also earlier hired two top-tier management consulting firms Booz Allen Hamilton and McKinsey & Co. to help with the planning.

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

A Booz Allen Hamilton report in June drew up eight possible scenarios involving energy for transportation and electricity. All of them showed the state falling short in terms of desired oil reduction for transportation uses, while meeting the 70 percent mark for electricity in two of the scenarios.

All of the scenarios included a broad effort and involved conservation, biofuels, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric and solar. The plan that came closest to the goal involved having wind farms on Lana'i and Moloka'i linking to O'ahu with undersea cables, and a high number of people switching to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, importation of 44 million gallons annually of biofuel and more.

A McKinsey presentation prepared in late June showed the state's dependence on oil will drive up imports to 62 million barrels annually if nothing is done. But an aggressive effort to convert to renewable energy could bring down the imports by 30 million barrels per year in 2030, it said.

It concluded the state could derive 28 percent to 48 percent of its energy requirements from renewable sources.

"Hawai'i has the potential to move further and faster than the rest of the U.S., demonstrating the economic growth and job creation opportunity from reducing oil dependence and greenhouse gas emissions," the presentation said.

But to do so, the state has to make strides in revising its permitting, land-use, water use and infrastructure, it said.

A PUSH FOR SPEED

Already there has been a call from one energy developer for the state to move faster. David Murdock, chairman and CEO of Castle & Cooke Inc. and owner of 98 percent of Lana'i, wants to develop a wind farm on his island that could provide 20 percent of O'ahu's electricity. Last month he called for Lingle to declare a state of emergency and cut through red tape that could take him five years to clear.

The process the state is using calls for meeting with various working groups to formulate an integrated plan by the end of the year. That would allow it to propose legislation needed to speed the transformation.

Bretschneider said he knows the goal is a lofty one for Hawai'i, but that he believes it can be achieved.

He noted that much of the technology already exists and there also is the possibility that technological breakthroughs could improve the outlook.

Moreover, the goal is a worthy one in that the state now spends $6 billion to $7 billion on imported oil to provide energy annually. Bretschneider said by meeting the goal, Hawai'i will be able to keep much of that money within the state as well as creating a host of new high-paying jobs.

Meeting the target would also increase security while lessen reliance on outside sources for energy, foster innovation and create economic opportunities.

"It all starts to fit together for a much brighter future for our state," Bretschneider said.

"Hawai'i has a chance to be a model for renewable energy for the entire world, not just the U.S."