Curious how Aloha Airlines' departure will change interisland air competition and affect ticket prices? You're not alone. Managers of Hawai'i's airlines don't know the answers yet either. Fortunately, the market will provide important clues during the coming weeks, and some predictions can be drawn right now.

Let's start with good news: We presently have enough interisland seats to avoid major economic disruptions. That said, there will be times of day when you cannot travel to your desired island. Because both Hawaiian and go! added so many new seats, tourism and commerce should not be squeezed significantly by a shortage of interisland seats. That situation could change by this summer if more flights are not added.

Aloha's departure will still hamper Hawai'i's economy in the near term, however. Jets flying to and from the Mainland typically fly much fuller than interisland flights, and there's less room here for the loss of a long-distance carrier such as Aloha. Thus, we will see Aloha's departure compounding the already-higher Hawai'i-to-Mainland ticket prices brought about by fuel cost increases. Now factor in the disappearance of ATA Airlines and the problem more than doubles. This drag on the Hawai'i economy will continue for several months until competitors pick up the slack.

Will go! take over Aloha's interisland market share and evenly split the market with Hawaiian? Hardly. If one looks at sold-out flights in the coming weeks, Hawaiian has a noticeably higher percentage than go!. This means that most former Aloha passengers are rebooking with Hawaiian and that Hawai'i's senior airline is currently flying fuller planes.

Both go! and Hawaiian are turning away passengers on some flights and could benefit from added capacity. The question is how much? My guess is that Hawaiian right now could attract 80 percent or more of interisland business if it could offer a sufficient number of seats. Hawaiian needs more Boeing 717s, but they're no longer being built and are hard to find. The wide-body 767, which Hawaiian has temporarily moved to interisland duty, is unsuitable as a long-term solution. Hawaiian has plenty of demand. It needs to quickly add more Boeing 717 jets.

As for go!, it should upgrade to larger jets to bring costs down. That's easier said than done because 80-100 seat regional jetliners are in short supply. go! must also mend its image with Hawai'i residents in the aftermath of Aloha's destruction if it wishes to fly fuller planes. Until these two steps are taken, Hawaiian Airlines will enjoy fuller flights with more efficient jets, which together allow it to make money over a wider range of fares than go! is capable of.

How about prices? Consumers are in luck for the short run, but within a year you'll probably see fares heading quite a bit higher. Right now, go! needs to keep prices low for several reasons. It needs to continue the illusion that it can make money with $49 fares, both to protect it in its Aloha court case in October and to avoid disenfranchising its supporters. Below-cost fares also serve as shark repellent to dissuade additional airlines from entering the market until Hawai'i's existing carriers can beef up capacity. go! was creeping prices up to $54 just prior to Aloha's disappearance, and we're already seeing $59 fares appearing on some go! flights this week. Hawaiian will determine which flights typically sell out and increase these fares, but will likely match go!'s fares on other flights.

In the long run, go! must charge quite a bit more to make a profit. The Sabre Study stated more than a year ago that go! needed $67 a seat to break even when paying passengers occupy 62 percent of the seats. With fuel prices and training costs way up for go!, that number has now jumped to about $75 a seat for break-even flying at that type of load. Full airplanes will allow the break-even price to decrease near term, but as both airlines add capacity we'll start to return to more typical passenger loads. Since go! has already lost tens of millions in operations and could lose hundreds of millions in legal awards, it needs to start turning a sizeable profit to justify this foray into Hawaiian airspace. Average fares exceeding $85 will be needed to do so.

And what about the wild cards? Island Air bailed out of heavily traveled interisland routes but will likely return once prices increase. Island Air has never been the bad boy in the market, but it could use its leverage as a small player with the lowest costs to bid for a price advantage over the jet airlines. United or any airline with flights to Hawai'i or partner connections could also jump into the fray while the supply of interisland seats is low. Finally, someone is going to buy the name "Aloha Airlines" and its operating certificate in the bankruptcy auction. If a well-funded restart of the airline takes place with the right jets and with former Aloha employees, a reborn Aloha could be both a tough competitor and the sentimental favorite.

The coming year in interisland travel should be anything but dull.

Peter Forman is an aviation industry historian. He wrote this commentary for The Advertiser.