After high-profile recalls of some Barbie, Polly Pocket and Thomas & Friends products, you've vowed not to buy Chinese-made toys this Christmas?

Good luck.

In the end, your kid's stocking likely will be stuffed with Chinese-made toys — unless you put oranges in it. That's because 80 percent of all toys sold in the U.S. are made in China. Some internal toy-industry estimates show only about 10 percent are actually made here.

More important, there's mounting evidence that avoiding Chinese-made toys may not be worth it. New research shows that most of the toy recalls in the past 20 years were due to design problems by the U.S. toymakers, not manufacturing problems that were the fault of Chinese or other foreign plants. U.S. toymakers also are far from immune to safety problems and may have at least as high a percentage of recalls as China when the U.S.' small market share is considered.

And if you do go the U.S.-made route, be ready for limited choices. Most U.S.-made toys are "nostalgia" toys, such as blocks or puzzles, that may not hold the interest of kids older than toddlers. There's Slinky, the wire-walking toy from the 1950s, and plastic toys like K'Nex construction sets.

When parents start looking for U.S.-made toys, "They'll be surprised at how few there are," says Gary Lindsey, marketing vice president for toy retailer eToys.com.

Lindsey says the toys he expects to be hot sellers this holiday season are all made in China. Like Tickle Me Elmo (the new version with Elmo as a pizza delivery man). Or the Webkinz plush toys, which have their own online world. Or the Transformer Voice Changer helmet.

U.S. TOYS NOT PERFECT

None of the recent high-profile toy recalls because of lead or lead paint, or dangerous coatings, have involved U.S.-made toys. But U.S.-made toys aren't necessarily safer than those made overseas, according to data from the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

U.S.-made toys were the subject of four of the 40 toy recalls the CPSC announced in the 2006 fiscal year, or 10 percent. Chinese-made toys were the subject of 28, or 70 percent. The other recalls were divided among toys made elsewhere in Asia and Europe.

That means China had a lower percentage of recalls than its 80 percent market share, while the U.S.' share of recalls is about the same as its estimated 10 percent share of sales. In fiscal 2007, which began Oct. 1, 2006, CPSC's recall efforts largely focused on lead issues, and China's share of toy recalls jumped to 88 percent of recalls in the year ended last week.

"What's the difference between American toys that are risky and Chinese toys that are risky?" asks David Ropeik, a risk communication consultant and former instructor at the Harvard School of Public Health. "One comes from someplace else. It feels scarier."

Most toy recalls are for poor design, not poor manufacturing, says Hari Bapuji, author of an August study of U.S. toy recalls.

The study of 680 recalls since 1974 found that 76 percent were due to design flaws, 10 percent because of manufacturing problems. The design flaws were the fault of the U.S.-based toy designers, not the foreign manufacturers, the study claims.

"It's not the problem with the 'Made in China' label," says Bapuji of the Asper School of Business at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Ontario. "It's the way the things have been designed. Even if it was made somewhere else, it was likely to have similar kinds of problems."

Those design flaws can include tiny pieces that break off easily and can choke a child, sharp edges than can cut or small magnets that, if swallowed, can damage a child's intestines, even causing death. In the recent Mattel recalls of toys made in China, though, the issue was mostly manufacturing errors caused by hired contractors who used lead-based paint. Lead paint has been banned on toys sold in the U.S. since 1978.

Carter Keithley, president of the Toy Industry Association, says design problems can be difficult for toymakers to anticipate because they can include "how a toy 'might' be misused."

As an example, he points to small magnets in earlier versions of the Magnetix building sets that killed one child and injured dozens of others so badly they needed surgery. No one anticipated that magnets "would stick together" and cause blockages in children's stomachs, he says.

Toymakers tend to focus on choking risks, not swallowing risks, because, Keithley notes, pediatricians often say "don't worry; it will pass."

U.S. toymakers say their safety inspections and standards are strict. "We think these (problems with China) are a wake-up call" to consumers, says Richard Bly, president of Holgate Toys, which grew out of a wood handle company started in 1789. "We're trying to be pro-active."