WASHINGTON — Gasoline prices could rise as much as 20 cents in the next few weeks as the price at the pump catches up with the recent surge in oil costs, the head of the Energy Department's analytical arm said yesterday.

"We haven't seen the full pass-through yet," Energy Information Administration head Guy Caruso said.

Oil prices have risen about $20 a barrel in the past two months. Retail gasoline costs on the Mainland have increased about 30 cents in that time. The agency's models suggest the price at the pump will likely rise another 20 cents in the next two or three weeks to fully reflect the jump in oil costs, Caruso said.

Hawai'i pump prices typically track national prices on a lagging basis. In Honolulu, prices had been relatively stable for about two months, but rose about 11 cents in the past week to $3.19 a gallon, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report. That's in line with an 11-cent a gallon rise in the national average to $3.10 during the past week.

However, during the past two months the national average has risen about 29 cents a gallon, versus just a 9-cent-a-gallon rise in the average price for regular gasoline in Honolulu.

There are a few factors that are helping to keep national prices at the pump from jumping along with oil. Europe's gasoline inventories are fairly high, providing a cushion to world supplies. And U.S. gasoline demand softens in the fall and winter, a factor that helps to "mute the price increase," Caruso said.

Yesterday, the average U.S. price for a gallon of regular was $3.101, up 88 cents or 39 percent from a year ago, motorist club AAA said. Average prices were at or above $3 in 39 states and in Washington, D.C.

There was some good news on the energy front yesterday as oil prices fell on hopes that OPEC members will soon pledge to increase production. Reductions in OPEC production in recent years are partly to blame for the high oil prices, Caruso said.

The price of a barrel of light, sweet crude trading for delivery in December fell $1.70, or 1.8 percent, to $94.62. Oil prices are up 62 percent from a year ago.

So far, the U.S. government has gotten no indication from OPEC members that they plan to boost production in the near-term, said Karen Harbert, assistant secretary in the office of policy and international affairs at the Energy Department.