Attention, shoppers: a retail tsunami with scores of new stores is expected to wash over O'ahu in the next two years.

Developers and retailers, in a wave of unprecedented planned growth, intend to add the combined equivalent of the state's two largest malls — Ala Moana Center and Pearlridge Center — to the island by 2009, increasing retail space by a staggering 25 percent.

Some consumers view the proposed development as the arrival of shopper's heaven.

Others fear a glut of store space and reduced market share for individual retailers.

Commercial real estate brokers say there could be some short-term overbuilding if all the projects move ahead as planned, but that demand conceivably should absorb the new retail over the longer term.

"Nothing like this has been added to the market before, but we're in a unique time," said Jeff Nasrallah, research project manager for PM Realty Group, which compiled the list of retail construction plans for O'ahu.

Most of the new retail is slated for Leeward O'ahu where the bulk of the island's population growth is occurring. Also spurring development is tight retail vacancy and strong interest by national retailers seeking entry to the Hawai'i market.

Among the planned retail projects are two regional malls with movie theater multiplexes, five big-box discount stores, a few community shopping centers and major additions to Ala Moana Center and Ward Centers.

Retailers driving much of the projected growth include Target, Nordstrom, Walgreens, Safeway, Whole Foods, Lowe's, Costco and Wal-Mart.

Others looking for Hawai'i expansion opportunities in the planned projects include Petco, Babies "R" Us, American Apparel and Johnny Rockets.

Many local businesses would also naturally be part of filling all the envisioned retail with enough space for a few hundred or so large and small retailers and restaurants.

MORE TRAFFIC

Makakilo resident Hartson Doak, a school custodian, said he's looking forward to Costco in Kapolei, but that he'd prefer more roads be built to alleviate bad traffic before the situation becomes worse with so much more retail.

Developers say they are working to minimize traffic impacts of their projects, and that several new roads are planned or under construction.

Bruce Uitto, who lives in Kane'ohe and operates the Outback Steakhouse in Kapolei, said the retail planned in the Kapolei region excites him.

"I'm looking forward to all that's planned, especially Target," he said. "There'll be a ton of restaurants out here in the next three years. Right now, I'm one of the only games in town. Competition will be good for business."

Jon-Eric Greene, a senior vice president at commercial real estate firm Colliers Monroe Friedlander involved in a few of the retail plans, said the projects will generate new competition as developers compete for retailers, and retailers in turn compete for customers.

"People are going to be battling for market share clearly," he said.

But Greene also said that population growth in the 'Ewa region — the city projects the area's population will grow by about 10,000 people to 96,769 by 2010 — is expected to substantially enlarge the retail pie.

"That's huge," he said. "I think somewhere around 2003 or 2004 Kapolei hit the tipping point. In terms of being a real 'second city' — it's there. But they're relatively underserved from a retail standpoint."

Greene said robust condominium and hotel development at Ko Olina Resort & Marina is another expected supplier of shoppers for retail planned in the region, and that popular discount retailer Target will draw customers from beyond.

"The whole island will drive out there (for Target)," he said.

Still, Greene said that if every project in the pipeline gets built by 2009, there will be oversupply at least in the short term.

Added Mike Hamasu, Colliers research and consulting director: "In all reality, some will be successful and some won't. That's a lot of space coming on line."

WILL ALL SUCCEED?

There is, of course, some question whether all the retail building will be realized.

One project, a planned Safeway-anchored neighborhood shopping center in 'Ewa Beach called Laulani Village, was announced in 2005 and expected to start construction last year. Instead, the developers listed the property for sale, though it is still possible the center will be built.

The most ambitious plan is by Florida-based DeBartolo Development, which last year agreed to lease 67 acres of state land in East Kapolei and intends to build a 1 million-square-foot open-air mall with theaters, retailers and restaurants. If built as envisioned, it would be O'ahu's third-largest mall.

DeBartolo is seeking tenants and expects to open East Kapolei Village in late 2009.

Other projects are further along, such as a Whole Foods-anchored expansion at Ward Centers, and a Nordstrom-anchored expansion at Ala Moana, both of which are under construction.

In Kapolei, a 605,000-square-foot retail complex called Kapolei Commons is slated to break ground by year-end and open in 2009 featuring a 160,000-square-foot Target store.

Todd Hedrick, director of leasing and property management for project co-developer The MacNaughton Group, said that in addition to Target, 125,000 square feet of space is tentatively reserved, and discussions are ongoing with Regal Entertainment Group for a roughly 15-screen theater complex.

"We've had really good interest," he said, explaining that the project is the first opportunity for traditional mall-based tenants — from Banana Republic to Macy's to Wet Seal — to open a store in West O'ahu.

"It just gives the people of the west side the opportunity to avoid the long commute," Hedrick said. "They'll have it right there."

Not all the planned projects depend on leasing space to tenants. Several are stand-alone stores being developed by big-box retailers.

MULTIPLE STORES

Wal-Mart and Costco plan stores in Kapolei. Walgreens plans stores in Kane'ohe and Honolulu. Lowe's is building a store in Iwilei. Target also is considering a second store at a former Costco site at Bougainville Industrial Park in Salt Lake.

In all, some 3 million square feet of retail space is in the development pipeline. It's an unprecedented amount of planned growth in a two-year period, and if completed as envisioned will present challenges for retailers around O'ahu.

Greene said the competitive impact on the market will be interesting to see, especially considering that high construction costs are dictating rental rates 40 percent to 50 percent higher at new centers compared with existing ones.

A small sandwich shop, for instance, may pay monthly rent of $3,500 for 1,000 square feet of space at an existing retail complex, or $5,000 for comparable space at a new project.

"You go from one side of the street to the other and rents are going up," Greene said. "It's pretty amazing."

Nasrallah of PM Realty said he doesn't expect a rash of retailer closings or a significant rise in mall vacancies triggered by the development boom, because of the projected population growth and low vacancy rate today.

PM Realty said retail sales have risen strongly in the past six years, and that retail vacancies on O'ahu have declined from about 8 percent in 2003 to 3.7 percent early this year, representing about 600,000 square feet of empty space being filled.

Much of the reduced vacancy has come while projects added space and retailers to the market, such as Laniakea Plaza in Waipi'o and Waikiki Beach Walk that opened this year.

PM Realty projects vacancy will fall below 3 percent by the end of the year, partly aided by store and restaurant openings at Royal Hawaiian Shopping Center, which is slated to complete a dramatic renovation and retenanting later this year.

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.