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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Bernanke gets it right in his first Fed year

By Joel Havemann
Los Angeles Times

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke has done a credible job keeping U.S. inflation in check without tipping the economy into a recession.

MANUEL BALCE CENETA | Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — Nobody ever said Alan Greenspan would be an easy act to follow.

But Ben S. Bernanke, marking his first anniversary as chairman of the Federal Reserve, is winning Greenspan-like plaudits for steering the U.S. economy toward steady growth and moderate inflation.

With President Bush focused on Iraq and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson shepherding most of Bush's domestic agenda, the nation's central banker is now more than ever the chief steward of the U.S. economy.

Bernanke took over from Greenspan a year ago Thursday at a particularly sensitive time, with the expansion that followed the 2001 recession getting long in the tooth and the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation. With a couple of exceptions — the booming 1960s and the Greenspan era during the 1990s — such long periods of economic growth and Fed rate hikes usually resulted in recession.

But after 14 rate increases under Greenspan starting in 2004, Bernanke's Fed lifted rates three more times before stopping last summer. The chances of error were high. If Bernanke had stopped tightening too soon, inflation could have re-ignited. If he kept going too long and overshot, the high rates could have choked economic growth.

"It was not an easy decision," said Robert DiClemente, Citigroup Inc.'s chief U.S. economist.

By most measures, Bernanke got it right. Now it's hard to find an economist who predicts a recession any time soon. In fact, the economy appears to be getting a second wind, with growth actually picking up again while inflation has declined — factors that likely are weighing on Bernanke and his Fed colleagues as they conclude a two-day policy meeting Wednesday.

"The changes in interest rates were just what the economy needed," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for Global Insight Inc.

Favorable comments are coming even from those who are usually quick to criticize the Fed for sacrificing economic growth in the interest of controlling inflation.

"I think he's concerned about the extent to which today's prosperity hasn't been widely shared," said Jared Bernstein, an economist with the liberal Economic Policy Institute. "I see a refreshing sympathy for working people."

Bernanke's reviews are just as solid among business advocates. Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance, said Bernanke had helped steer the economy to a point similar to where it was in 1995. The recovery from the 1990-91 recession was complete, he said, and the economy was sputtering. But rather than crashing like an improperly de-iced airliner, the economy touched down briefly, refueled and took off again.

GOOD LUCK WITH OIL

Circumstances have contributed to Bernanke's fortune. On the negative side, he inherited an overheated housing market that was due for a slump. He had to ensure that rising interest rates would not throw it into a full-fledged collapse.

At the same time, it was Bernanke's good luck that declining oil prices took the edge off inflation. And Bernanke faced no crisis early in his tenure comparable to the stock market crash that greeted Greenspan in 1987.

When Bernanke took over from Greenspan, he had all the right credentials.

He knew the Fed: He had been a member of its board from 2002 to 2005. He knew politics: He was chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors when Bush chose him for Fed chairman. And he knew economics: He had been the chairman of Princeton's economics department.

Bernanke made no claim that he could steer the Fed more adroitly than Greenspan, who had achieved a level of public adulation that is rare in Washington. But he did offer improvement in informing the public of the Fed's policy decisions in clear and understandable terms.

CASUAL COMMENTS HURT

In his third month on the job, Bernanke testified to the Joint Economic Committee that the Fed might pause hiking rates for a month or two, even if it determined that inflation still posed a greater threat than an economic slowdown. To the markets, that seemed clear enough, and stock prices rose.

But in a casual conversation the following weekend, Bernanke told CNBC reporter Maria Bartiromo that the markets had misconstrued his earlier comment. "It's worrisome that people would look at me as dovish and not necessarily an aggressive inflation fighter," Bartiromo quoted Bernanke as saying.

That was more candor than the markets could swallow. In the hour after Bartiromo's report, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 75 points.

Bernanke has been careful not to repeat that gaffe. "In the future," he promised the Senate Banking Committee, "my communications with the public and the markets will be entirely through regular and formal channels."