After five straight months of decline, the number of Japanese visitors traveling to Hawai'i is forecast to increase slightly during Japan's July-August peak travel season, according to a survey by JTB Corp.

Japan's biggest travel agency estimated about 223,000 Japanese will visit Hawai'i between July 15 and Aug. 31, up 1.4 percent over the same time last year. The forecast was based on a survey of 2,200 residents at 200 locations across Japan.

The forecast for modest growth could be a sign of hope for the Japanese market, which has declined every month this year. Japanese visitor arrivals this year are down 7.8 percent through May, according to state figures.

Sharon Weiner, DFS U.S. Group vice president and Hawai'i Tourism Authority board member, was cautiously optimistic.

"That would be great news if it's true," Weiner said, adding that she hasn't seen the JTB report. "If that's true that's the first black ink in arrivals we've seen in a long time."

But Weiner said arrivals are "extremely difficult to predict." She noted HTA data show high demand for Hawai'i trips but there are still limited air seats.

"It's one thing to say you really want to go someplace and another thing whether you can afford it given what your alternatives are," she said.

Bookings and expectations among some businesses are mixed.

As of July 7, JTB bookings to Hawai'i for July are down 7 percent compared to last year, said Yujiro Kuwabara, director and general manager of JTB Hawaii. August bookings are up 2.1 percent, he said.

More people are booking trips to Hawai'i earlier, in part because travel agents and airlines have offered discounts and other incentives to encourage early bookings, he said. That also helped offset airline fuel surcharges, he said.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts in Hawai'i, however, forecasts a decrease in Japanese customers for the second half of the year, said spokesman David Uchiyama.

JALPAK International Hawaii Inc.'s booking forecasts for August and September reflect business nearly at last year's levels, said JALPAK senior vice president Akio Hoshino. That's "not bad" and an improvement over the April to June period, he said. He said booking forecasts for October through December look good, but added there are still many uncertainties.

Hoshino pointed out that conditions hurting the Japanese market still remain, such as fuel surcharges and a decrease in available "standard class" hotel rooms.

The yen-dollar exchange rate, however, is improving for the Japanese, Hoshino said.

Reach Lynda Arakawa at larakawa@honoluluadvertiser.com.