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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, July 9, 2006

COMMENTARY
North Korea missiles have consequences

By Richard Halloran

South Koreans, including these students carrying a mock North Korean Taepodong-2 missile, took to the streets of Seoul on Wednesday to protest North Korea's missile launches.

LEE JIN-MAN | Associated Press

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John Bolton, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, met with reporters Wednesday as he arrived for Security Council consultations in New York on North Korea's Fourth of July missile launches. The U.N. Security Council must send a "strong and unanimous signal" that North Korea's missile test-launch was unacceptable, Bolton said.

SETH WENIG | Associated Press

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The salvo of North Korean missiles fired last week rattled windows in defense ministries and foreign offices in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, Beijing and Moscow, plus those at the United Nations and U.S. military headquarters in South Korea, Japan and the Pacific Command here in Hawai'i.

In contrast, the news was well received in Iran because North Korea has a long history of cooperation with Tehran. Rather than competing for attention from Western powers, as some analysts contend, North Korea and Iran appear to be coordinating their missile and nuclear programs to double-punch the U.S. and its allies.

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, sent two distinct messages with the barrage of seven missiles, one political, the other military.

With a keen sense of timing, Kim taunted the U.S. by launching the missiles on the Fourth of July holiday and as the U.S. space shuttle Discovery lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Fla. After weeks of increasingly stern U.S. warnings not to fire the missiles, Kim in effect challenged President Bush to do something about it besides talk.

Moreover, as the flames and smoke of North Korea's fireworks subsided, it became clear that anything less than a military response would be seen by Pyongyang as evidence that the U.S. could be defied with impunity. Negotiations with Pyongyang intended to eliminate North Korean nuclear aspirations do not look promising, to say the least.

Two other consequences seem likely: Kim has given proponents of U.S. missile defenses another argument to forge ahead. And proposals to move more U.S. troops out of South Korea have been temporarily set aside.

Militarily, the mix of short-range Scuds, medium-range Nodongs and long-range Taepodongs, even if one blew up forty seconds after launch, was intended to show that South Korean and U.S. forces in South Korea, Japanese and U.S. forces in Japan, and American bases in Hawai'i, Alaska, and the continental U.S. were within range.

U.S. intelligence knew that but the demonstration was meant to bring the peril home to the public.

In Hawai'i, warships at Pearl Harbor, aircraft at Hickam Air Force Base, soldiers in the 25th Division at Schofield Barracks, and Marines in Kane'ohe, all of which have marching orders to go to Korea in a contingency, would be prime targets.

Many observers questioned whether North Korea could mount a nuclear warhead on the missiles because of doubts that they could make the warhead small and light enough. That overlooked North Korea's known stockpiles of chemical arms that could be carried by the missiles.

South Koreans split on the threat. President Roh Moo Hyun, who has preached reconciliation with North Korea, issued a plea for "patient dialogue." A statement asserted: "Pressuring North Korea and creating tensions are not helpful in the resolution of this issue."

One newspaper, JoongAng Ilbo, headlined an analysis: "Pyongyang is a clear winner" and said Roh would be confronted with "public outrage and pressure from conservatives." Another paper, Chosun Ilbo, lamented: "This government has done nothing but issue a statement expressing serious regret."

Japan was tougher, immediately closing down routine port calls by North Korean ships and visits to Japan by North Korean officials. Longer run, the missile salvo seemed certain to accelerate Japan's plans to modernize its armed forces, to become more active in international security, and to tighten its alliance with the U.S., including building missiles defenses.

Chinese officials who have often asserted to American officials that they have limited influence over North Korea were proved right. Chinese leaders had urged North Korea to forgo its missile launches but were defied. How China deals with its rogue neighbor from now on will be intriguing to watch.

Similarly, the Russians, long patrons of North Korea, urged Kim Jong Il not to fire his missiles. They were ignored and have thus been set back in their ambitions to regain influence in Northeast Asia.

Iran's cooperation with North Korea began in the 1980s, when Tehran financed Pyongyang's production of Russian-designed Scud missiles and received 100 of them. Later, North Korea shipped engines for Nodong medium-range missiles to Iran.

The North Korean demonstration will undoubtedly harden Iran's stance, if that is possible, against Western nations seeking to dissuade Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Larijani, is scheduled to meet the European Union's senior diplomat, Javier Solana, in Brussels on Tuesday to discuss political and economic incentives offered to Iran.

As the cliché has it, don't hold your breath awaiting progress.

Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia. His column appears weekly in Sunday's Focus section.