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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Saturday, January 14, 2006

Stocks beckon investors again

By Michael J. Martinez
Associated Press

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange tracked the Dow Jones industrial average as it surmounted the 11,000 mark on Monday for the first time since the 9/11 attacks. While the Dow closed yesterday at 10,959.87, it gained 0.01 percent for the week.

AP LIBRARY PHOTO | Jan. 9, 2006

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NEW YORK — Bruce McMeiken has had a good run investing in real estate near his home in Orange County, Calif. Now, however, he thinks there's a better place for his money: the stock market.

"I don't think we're all the way back yet in stocks, but I believe there's some good bargains out there," said McMeiken, a one-time dot-com executive.

"Real estate's been good, and I don't think you're going to see that bubble completely burst, but I think it's time to look at stocks again."

Like other investors in the first half of the decade, McMeiken had success investing in real estate. But with sales slowing and home prices flat, there's a concern that the real estate market is cooling. And with bonds experiencing worrisome trends and increased volatility, and the Dow Jones industrial average topping 11,000 this past week, investors focus increasingly on stocks.

Since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000-01, the housing market has taken off. Home sales increased steadily since 2001, the last time the Dow was at 11,000. And while the Dow eventually fell to 7,286.27 on Oct. 9, 2002 — the nadir of the bear market — home prices have doubled or even tripled in some areas.

Yet recent evidence suggests the housing market is slowing. Existing-home sales are expected to fall 4.4 percent in 2006 after years of record sales, while new construction is expected to drop 6.6 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. And the median price of a home is expected to climb just 5.1 percent this year — a solid increase, but small compared to what investors in real estate have enjoyed over the past few years.

"Baby boomers are turning 60, and they're working to build up those nest eggs for retirement. For some that are running behind, that means putting at least some of that nest egg into more aggressive investments," said David Kelly, senior economic adviser at Putnam Investments in Boston. "For a while, that was real estate or high-yield bonds. Not anymore."

Investor confidence in high-yield bonds has been shaken over the last year as the at-risk companies that issue them have struggled — just look at General Motors Corp.'s bonds, which tumbled in value, or those of Refco Inc., the one-time financial services darling that plummeted into bankruptcy after its chief executive allegedly hid $430 million in bad debts off the books.

Even government bonds have been volatile, with the yield curve inverting in the last week of 2005. Normally, long-term bonds like the 10- or 30-year yield more than a two-year or shorter-term note, because the government is borrowing the principal longer. But when the curve inverted, the two-year had better returns than the 10-year and increased investors frustrations.

That leaves stocks. According to Kleintop, earnings per share for companies listed in the Standard & Poor's 500 index have risen 46 percent since 2001; dividends per share are up 39 percent. Yet a stock's value, measured by comparing its price to potential earnings, has declined. In 2001, stocks were priced at about 22.2 times forward earnings, compared to 13.8 times forward earnings today, Kleintop said.

In other words, while a given stock may have risen or fallen over the past five years, stock investors could get more for their dollar overall on Wall Street.