U.S. gasoline prices, including Hawai'i's, could climb by as much as 10 cents a gallon after the closure of a key oil pipeline in Alaska.

The pipeline, which was shut down Sunday after leaking oil, isn't expected to have a direct impact on production at Hawai'i's two refineries. Neither of Hawai'i's two refiners — Chevron and Tesoro — uses crude oil from the pipeline.

Still motorists could see higher pump prices as crude oil rises on the world market in response to tighter supplies following rising Middle East tensions and supply disruptions, such as the pipeline shutdown.

An estimated 60 percent of the cost of a gallon of gasoline comes from its crude oil component. As a result, gasoline prices tend to track crude oil prices.

Tom Kloza, an analyst at Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J., told The Associated Press he expected crude oil prices to hit a record high in the coming days, which would translate into an increase in gasoline prices around the country of about 5 cents to 10 cents a gallon. Historically, Hawai'i prices have tracked Mainland prices when they go up and have been slower to decline when they go down.

Oil industry giant BP PLC shut down 8 percent of the country's oil output to fix a leaky pipeline on Alaska's North Slope.

News of the Alaska pipeline problems boosted crude oil futures by more than $2 yesterday, to close at $76.98 a barrel, just shy of the July 14 record of $77.03. Gasoline futures also rose.

The biggest direct impact on supplies is expected to be in California, where about 20 percent of the state's crude requirements come from Alaska. Hawai'i's refineries, by contrast, import most of their crude oil from Asia and the Middle East.

Locally, gasoline retailers said they wouldn't increase prices at the pump until wholesale prices rise.

"I don't think you'll see any reaction from the retailers," said Bill Green, a former owner and now consultant to Kahala Shell. "The only reaction to it would be from suppliers and our two refiners currently have no problem with supply."

Green noted that while crude oil futures have been very volatile, swinging up and down by as much as $4 to $5 a barrel over the past six weeks following events in the Middle East, gasoline prices in Hawai'i have held fairly steady.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.377 yesterday, compared with $3.384 a month earlier, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

Paul Brewbaker, Bank of Hawaii chief economist, said any gasoline price hikes that would hit Hawai'i as a result of the Alaska disruption would likely be "transitory."

"One thing we did learn from the gas cap episode is that when there aren't distorting interventions like price regulation, the market tends to work itself out and price impacts of these kinds of events tend to be transitory," Brewbaker said.

He said the crude oil market was able to fairly quickly digest the events in Lebanon with minimal impact on gasoline prices.

"The good news on the pipeline is we know the repair work will be finished, unlike the conflict in Lebanon, which is open-ended," Brewbaker said.

"But we should remember that oil prices are burdensome at these levels and people are having some difficulty making adjustments to economize."

Higher crude oil prices also put upward pressure on shipping and electricity costs.

Horizon Lines, which along with Matson Navigation Co. has raised its fuel surcharge five times in the past 15 months, said it was closely monitoring fuel prices.

On Friday, Young Brothers, Hawai'i's largest interisland cargo shipper, asked the state for a 5.5 percent rate increase due in part to increased fuel costs.

"In this instance I haven't heard anything, but we're constantly looking at it because it's a big concern for us," said Horizon spokesman Ku'uhaku Park.

Hawaiian Electric Co. makes monthly adjustments to its fuel surcharge and passes the cost along to its customers. Over the past year, the fuel surcharge was increased 11 percent, said spokesman Jose Dizon.

Dizon said Hawaiian Electric has 30 days of fuel in reserve and day-to-day changes in oil prices don't always affect the utility's cost of production.

Reach Alan Yonan Jr. at ayonan@honoluluadvertiser.com.