Fourth-ranked Hawai'i opens against 19th-ranked Cal State Northridge in the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation Women's Water Polo Championship today. The Rainbow Wahine's season will probably be judged by what happens tomorrow.

"It basically comes down to one game against Berkeley Friday," UH coach Michel Roy said. "They beat us once, we beat them once. We haven't played since early February. It's pretty even I'd say. ... They've got one really good player (Elsie Windes). Ours are more experienced. Hopefully, the nervous factor is in our favor."

The late Friday game — should sixth-ranked Cal (15-8) get past Pacific (0-21) and the 'Bows (14-9) bounce Northridge (12-19) today — will probably be for the final at-large berth into the NCAA Championship.

Winners of the five conferences get automatic berths, with three at-large slots left. Top-ranked Southern Cal, No. 2 UCLA and No. 3 Stanford are virtually assured a place no matter what they do in the MPSF this weekend.

The Rainbow Wahine went to their first NCAA Championship last year, finishing fourth. Anything less would be a disappointment for this team.

"California is what the season comes down to," said junior Kristy Bagnall, who was second on the team with 42 goals two years ago, but had to watch last year's NCAA surge because of shoulder surgery.

Bagnall and Roy both believe the 2006 'Bows have more talent. Whether it is a better team remains a mystery, at least until tomorrow and possibly until May 12 to 14, when the nationals are played at UC Davis.

All-American Monika Kruszona, who was involved in nearly 100 UH goals (62 scored, 36 assists) last year, is no longer in Manoa. Sophomore All-American Iefke Van Belkum (team-high 54 goals and 14 assists) has raised her level, as have all the returning Rainbow Wahine.

But, introducing new players — especially scorers — takes time. Hawai'i has more depth and "better average players," according to Roy, but chemistry is still coming. A year ago, nearly 80 percent of the UH goals came off an assist. This year, it is down to 31 percent.

"I believe we have a better team than last year," Roy said. "We have a better seven starters, but we're still learning, getting to know each other better. Sometimes more better players is not always better. Now we've got six girls who want to shoot instead of two so they don't always get to shoot.

"On paper, we're better. In the water, it's yet to be seen."

Hawai'i has won 13 of its last 18, with all the losses coming against the top three. It is seeded fifth in this tournament because it finished fifth in the MPSF — two games behind Cal.

The bulk of the scoring has come from Van Belkum, who is second in the MPSF at 2.35 goals a game, freshman Kelly Mason (47 goals) and Bagnall (20). All-America goalie Meike De Nooy is averaging nine saves, three more than last year.

Northridge sophomore Allison Brookes is third in MPSF scoring with 2.1 goals per game, between Van Belkum and Mason (2.04).

NOTES

Punahou graduate Brandon Brooks, the Olympic goalie in 2004, earned the Outstanding Goalkeeper award at the seventh annual Premier League Division I Championships last week in California. Brooks had 12 saves, including three in a 5-meter overtime shootout, to lift his Los Angeles Water Polo Club to a 12-10 victory in the final. Sean Kern, another Punahou graduate and former Olympian, was second in scoring at the tournament with 61 goals.

Reach Ann Miller at amiller@honoluluadvertiser.com.