Risk managers were warned yesterday that a bird-flu pandemic could drastically reduce business activity because as many as 40 percent of all employees might stay home from work.

If a bird-flu pandemic hit, workers would stay home because they are ill, someone in their family is ill, they are worried that they might be sick or afraid they could get sick through contact with others at work.

Experts speaking at the Risk and Insurance Management Society meeting at the Hawai'i Convention Center yesterday said businesses can't count on vaccine being available for their workers and that businesses need to have contingency plans in place.

"There will be a pandemic," said Michael Liebowitz, director of risk management for Bridgeport Hospital & Healthcare Services in Connecticut. "It's not going to go away."

Potential fatality estimates range from 2 million to 40 million, with some several times that amount, if the flu starts jumping from person to person. Hawai'i officials estimate that about 1,000 people may die here over an eight-week outbreak and are worried the state could be a potential U.S. gateway for the flu because of its tourism and travelers from Asia.

The state's preparations are well under way, including plans for stockpiling enough antiviral medications for 25 percent of the state's population.

Speakers at the conference yesterday said vaccines for the H5N1 virus will most likely be distributed to healthcare, police, firefighters and civil defense workers first.

Gary Lynch, Marsh Inc. managing director, said businesses may be on their own during the first 72 hours of an outbreak because government may be tied up.

He said plans need to focus on ensuring the most important aspects of the business are addressed, such as making sure certain people come to work or that a critical supplier is operational. Liebowitz said his hospital's plans extend to obtaining trucks to pick up medicines and food from warehouses to how to handle security, utility failures and traffic.

Speakers said plans need to include communications with employees, coordination with local authorities and travel restrictions.

General Motors Corp. has developed a risk matrix that includes what actions need to be taken as the threat escalates from an "advisory" to "critical" stage. That includes what needs to be taken by various units, what management decisions are required and, in the most dire stages, evacuation processes.

Alan Gier, General Motors director of global risk financing and insurance, said the outbreaks could come in waves and for now are fairly short-lived because the virus has been transmitted to humans from contact with infected birds.

"If it goes human-to-human, all bets are off," Gier said.

Reach Greg Wiles at gwiles@honoluluadvertiser.com.