The number of jobs in Kapolei — O'ahu's developing "Second City" — is projected to triple in the next 20 years as commercial development catches up with home and population growth, according to two new studies.

Study results project that the greater Kapolei area — from West Loch to Ko Olina — will add about 40,000 jobs over the next two decades, increasing the workforce from 24,860 this year to 64,720 by 2025.

Population growth over the same period is projected to almost double, from 84,150 to 173,170 residents.

Even with the added jobs, commuter traffic will continue to increase between West O'ahu and Honolulu because there still will be many more residents than jobs in the region.

"Part of the plan (for Kapolei) is that we weren't going to be a bedroom community, so that people don't have to drive to town and sit in traffic," said Kapolei resident and Neighborhood Board member Linda Young. "If they can change that, that would be great."

The studies, by Decision Analysts Hawaii and OmniTrak Group, were commissioned by Kapolei's master developer and major landowner the Campbell Estate.

The studies were made to update older projections that were largely unrealized because of the state's prolonged economic slump that lasted most of the 1990s, said Donna Goth, president of Campbell Estate development affiliates Aina Nui Corp. and Kapolei Property Development LLC.

It has been 15 years since the Campbell Estate began construction of Kapolei, seeding the former sugar-cane land with commercial infrastructure, a few retail and office buildings, parks and other facilities.

Since then, an overwhelming amount of development in the area has been housing, as developers built homes for people who primarily work in Honolulu. New housing in Kapolei has worsened traffic congestion between West O'ahu and Ho-nolulu.

BUSINESS GROWTH LAGS

Commercial development in the Kapolei area has been slower, as businesses assessed whether there were enough residents to support new restaurants, retail stores and service operations.

At present, about 80 percent of greater Kapolei residents work outside the area, according to the OmniTrak study.

The OmniTrak survey reported that 67 percent of area residents who work outside Kapolei want to work in the area.

They may get their wish as more businesses locate in the area.

In the past few years, there has been a boom of commercial development plans and interest in Kapolei, suggesting that the region is on a path to becoming less a bedroom community and more a second metropolitan center on O'ahu as envisioned by city planners in 1977.

Goth said the Decision Analysts study shows that in greater Kapolei, there were 44 percent more working-age residents than jobs in 2000. That difference is about 38 percent today, and it is projected to decrease to 17 percent by 2025.

"We are closing the gap," she said. "Kapolei is fulfilling the directive of the city and county as it evolves into a business district."

The Decision Analysts study projects that commercial development should lead to 40,000 new jobs by 2025 while the area adds 38,000 new residents of working age.

Some of the expected new jobs should be from projects already in the development pipeline. Goth said 17 projects will be in planning or construction phases next year, including six retail projects, five office projects, a school and a judiciary complex.

NEW JOB SOURCES

Two major public-sector job generators are expected to be the University of Hawai'i West O'ahu campus, with 1,200 jobs, and a state court complex bringing 650 direct and indirect jobs.

In the private sector, major job creators include a regional mall planned by The MacNaughton Group and a middle and high school expansion of Island Pacific Academy. Wal-Mart is another development that has been explored.

Planned residential projects include the 1,100-home Mehana subdivision by D.R. Horton's Schuler Division, a senior living campus and several hundred second-home condominiums at Ko Olina Resort & Marina.

The OmniTrak survey said that every job in Kapolei takes about one car off the highway. But because of the projected population growth, there still would be a net increase in cars to worsen congestion if no mass-transit alternatives are implemented.

Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who works out of the city's Kapolei office once a week, said keeping cars in Kapolei is a good goal, but that there remains a need for other transportation solutions such as the Kalaeloa-based ferry system scheduled for launch next year and a rail system supported by his administration and state officials.

Kapolei growth projections

2005 2025

Residents 84,150 173,170

Jobs 24,860 64,720

Reach Andrew Gomes at agomes@honoluluadvertiser.com.