By 2050, the number of Native Hawaiians living in the U.S. will more than double, according to a study just released by the Kamehameha Schools.

"Based on past data points and current trends, these forecasts point out that from what we know and what we've seen, the Native Hawaiian population is not expected to decline, but is, in fact, expected to increase," said Nolan Malone, the author of the study titled Laupa'i Kanaka, Native Hawaiian Population Forecasts for 2000 to 2050.

Statewide, the number of Native Hawaiians will rise from 239,655 in 2000 to 536,947 in 2050, the study said. Across the nation, Malone said, the number of Native Hawaiians will rise from 401,162 to 987,602. That means the larger increase will be on the Mainland, where the number would go from 161,507 to 450,655, a near tripling, the study said.

There have been questions about whether the number of Native Hawaiians has been increasing or decreasing.

Eugene Tian, research and statistics officer for the state Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism, said while he has not seen the methodology used to arrive at a projected increase, he believes the results are "reasonable."

A DBEDT population forecast through 2030 shows the state's overall population increasing at a clip of 1 percent per year while the Kamehameha study, when broken down, projects the Native Hawaiian population going up by 1.6 percent during that time, Tian said.

"It is higher than (the rate of) our state population," he said, "but the Native Hawaiian population forecast in the report looks reasonable."

FOCUS ON KEIKI

The Malone study crunches not just population numbers issued by the Census Bureau, but also birth, mortality and migration rates over a number of years.

Native Hawaiian is defined in the study as any person who has a drop of Hawaiian blood.

What the numbers mean depends on whom you talk to.

Kamehameha Schools officials believe the forecast reinforces the need to continue a recent focus on programs that assist those from birth to 8 years old.

School spokeswoman Ann Botticelli noted that the study shows children younger than age 5 as the fastest-growing segment of the Native Hawaiian population in the state over the next half-century.

The number of Native Hawaiians 4 and younger would increase from 24,677 in 2000 to 65,870 by 2050, according to the study, a 167 percent increase.

"It helps us determine what we should be providing for the Native Hawaiian population at Kamehameha Schools," Botticelli said.

The conclusion of the study appears to conflict with two separate surveys released this year by the U.S. Census Bureau. One of them estimates that the number of Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders in the state dropped from 2000 to 2004, while the other shows the number of school-age children in Hawai'i, those 5 to 13 regardless of their ethnicity, declining during that same four-year span.

Malone, a former Census Bureau analyst, said he believes the survey showing fewer Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders in Hawai'i mixed numbers from the 2000 Census, a hard count, with 2004 estimates based on a small sampling size, making it more susceptible to errors.

COMPARING STUDIES

Malone said the survey showing fewer school-age children is somewhat misleading because it focused on only a short period of time. When looked at over a number of years, he said, the decrease shows up as a small blip downward in what otherwise is an upward curve.

The main point of his study, Malone said, is that "the Native Hawaiian population isn't going anywhere. It isn't decreasing, it's increasing."

State Health Director Chiyome Fukino agreed that an increasing population requires more focus on educational programs, particularly since Native Hawaiians often show up in the lower rung of health statistics.

"If you want to talk about the Native Hawaiian population in a general sense, if we do not have a substantial increase in the level of education of our population, we are likely to continue the cycle that we have seen in recent history of lower socioeconomic status and poor health," Fukino said.

"And regardless of what ethnic group you belong to, there is a link between lower socioeconomic status and poor health."

Lilikala Kame'eleihiwa, a professor of Hawaiian Studies at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa, said she has come to the conclusion that the future well-being of Native Hawaiians is dependent on them becoming a larger share of the population.

"I'm seeing that we need to be a majority of the population if we're going to get political change," she said.

"We, as Hawaiians, would like to have more control over our land base so that we can raise our children in a Hawaiian manner so we can practice our culture, so that we have land on which we can make our schools that we can use to produce healthy, happy Hawaiians."

Kame'eleihiwa said she's disappointed the Kamehameha study does not show Native Hawaiians growing at a faster clip. At a recent rally attended by approximately 10,0000 supporters of Kamehameha's admissions policy, she urged Native Hawaiians to make as many babies as they could. She continues to make that call.

"I don't want to have to wait for 2050 for us to double our population," she said. "Instead of the next 50 years, I'd like to do it in the next 20 years."

Using DBEDT studies combined with the Kamehameha estimates, the survey projects the percentage of Native Hawaiians will grow from 20.2 percent of the state population in 2000 to 21.2 percent in 2025, only a small increase. Malone said he did not have statewide projections beyond that date to see what percentage of Native Hawaiians there would be in 2050.

Clyde Namu'o, administrator for the Office of Hawaiian Affairs, said that a simple increase in numbers does not signify success for Native Hawaiians.

"The real issue is whether Hawaiians will still need to be 'rehabilitated,' " Namu'o said. "This is the issue regardless of the number of Hawaiians which exist. If we make our way such that we are not the poorest, the least healthy, the one without the college degree, then I would suggest that we have made our way in the Western world."

Reach Gordon Y.K. Pang at gpang@honoluluadvertiser.com.