At Moloka'i's tiny Maunaloa Elementary School of 57 students — with 8 to 10 per grade — principal Joe Yamamoto is staggered by the prospect of what will happen beginning next school year, when schools start receiving their money based on individual student need.

"I would just say positions will be cut," said Yamamoto, of what he expects to happen. And that's just in the first year of a four-year rollout of the new "weighted student formula."

Under the Department of Education's official numbers, Yamamoto's school stands to lose about $83,000 next year, and sustain an annual loss of about $330,000 a year by the time the formula is fully implemented in four years. The numbers are not final because they're subject to some tweaks next year when enrollment is determined, but they're the best look to date at what the new funding formula will mean to public schools across the state.

The latest figures show that some schools will lose or gain more money than they had expected. Of the state's 250-plus regular public schools, 118 will gain money and the rest will lose money.

Even if schools do lose money, they could see a gain in the per- student allocation.

"Part of it is enrollment-related, and part of it is student demographics," said Randy Moore, DOE program manager for the Reinventing Education Act passed by the 2004 Legislature. The act requires that budget allocations be based on student need, beginning with the 2006-07 school year.

"Under the old system of allocating resources to the schools, it was not very sensitive to changes in enrollment or demographics," Moore said. "Now those changes are immediate."

Maunaloa Elementary's current budget is about $753,000 annually, with an allocation of $13,215 per student — the largest per-student amount in the state.

Next year's allocation is projected to be $670,000 under the new formula, largely because enrollment will decline to 45 students. While that is an overall loss of money, the amount the school receives per student will rise to $14,890 because of weighted dollar amounts based on individual student characteristics.

If the money formula remains as envisioned, Yamamoto said, by year 4 he will have lost half of his staff, about 10 of the 20 or so people his school employs.

"It will probably be so unbearable or difficult to manage, something would have to be done," he said. "Ultimately, the students would be so totally affected that some decisions would have to be made."

There has been talk of folding the tiny school into a larger elementary school about 12 miles away, but that idea has swirled through the community for as long as Yamamoto can remember.

"Those conversations have been going on," he said. "It's always been a small school."

As dim as Maunaloa's future looks now, it's likely going to change.

The Board of Education has promised to take another look at the formula it approved in October to see if there's a way to keep small schools like those in rural Moloka'i from being devastated.

By January, schools superintendent Pat Hamamoto and Randy Hitz, University of Hawai'i dean of education, will have recommendations for a trimmed-down, restructured committee to rework the formula.

The new committee will be smaller and less unwieldy than the first, which had more than 40 members.

As well, the BOE is mandating a review of the current formula by an outside consultant.

"To me, the critical issue is a third-party review," said board member Karen Knudsen. "We want to make sure before we do something drastic, (the formula) can stand up to scrutiny by outside review."

The department is recommending several potential consultants.

Knudsen said she also wants the department to tell the BOE about job losses at each school.

Roger Takabayashi, president of the Hawai'i State Teachers Association, recommends that the Department of Education look at creating a formula based on a standard base allocation to operate each school, such as money for a principal, an office secretary, a registrar and so on.

"There's a litany of things we should agree a school should have, regardless of size," he said. "Maybe there should be that kind of standard first. Then, after all the basic standards have been filled, you apply the weights to give them extra dollars according to all the criteria."

Without that kind of a base, said Takabayashi, small schools won't have enough to provide the basic standard of service.

Meanwhile, the DOE is setting aside $3 million to help schools that experience big enrollment increases in the first semester next year.

As much as schools such as Maunaloa are bracing for the worst, others, like Farrington High, are looking forward to the changes they will be able to make.

Farrington expected to gain $131,000 next year under initial DOE projections, but the amount is closer to $371,000 under the updated numbers, and principal Catherine Payne says that will mean adding staffing.

The school will be able to add a counselor, another teacher to help with technology, another to help with English as a second language, and several part-time people to tutor after school, Payne said.

Reach Beverly Creamer at bcreamer@honoluluadvertiser.com.