Even as they tally increasing crystal methamphetamine arrests and seizures, local and federal law enforcement officials are giving mixed assessments on whether they're making significant progress toward eradicating the problem.

Some say the increase in arrests indicates that ice dealers and their customers are being targeted and removed from the drug marketplace.

Others, including criminologists, say that arrests alone will not stem the "ice" problem and that only a cohesive balance of enforcement, education and treatment will help reduce drug abuse.

"We could fill our jails with ice dealers and ice users and still not get a handle on this problem," said Hawai'i County Police Chief Lawrence Mahuna.

The problem of how to combat ice and the crimes that surround its use has hounded lawmakers and law enforcement officials for more than a decade. The number of ice arrests and cases involving the drug are on pace this year to hit a four-year high in Honolulu, according to statistics from the Honolulu Police Department's narcotics/vice division.

Statewide, ice arrests are climbing in at least one other county, and federal law enforcement officials report seizures and arrests that are on pace to match or surpass last year's numbers.

As of June 30, the latest figures available, HPD had made 379 ice arrests. That compares with 708 ice arrests in 2004 and 578 in 2003.

"I believe that there are positive signs that the ice problem in Hawai'i is turning the corner and that this epidemic is on the verge of being 'contained' in the near future. I don't think that we will ever control the problem because there will always be a demand as well as willing suppliers of this drug. I really believe this local-state-federal teamwork approach, with an eye toward federal prosecution and incarceration, is paying off," U.S. Attorney Ed Kubo said in an e-mail.

"As to whether we can arrest our way out of this ice epidemic, I believe use of illegal drugs will never disappear in our world as long as there is addiction in our society, and greed for money by those who would distribute drugs."

Kubo favors a balanced approach of law enforcement, treatment and education. He characterized the rising arrests as a testament to aggressive and focused law enforcement.

Honolulu police said they're making a difference.

"Considering that ice is highly addictive, I believe that every ice arrest and seizure that we make is significant and potentially saves a life from being ruined," said Maj. Kevin Lima, head of HPD's narcotics/vice division.

Arrest statistics for other counties were not available last week, but Mahuna, on the Big Island, said arrests had climbed every year for the past three years.

Federal law enforcement officials say their approach — targeting higher-level dealers — is having an impact.

"We're targeting the right people and we're identifying organizations and sources of supply and we're having an impact there without any question," said Tony Williams, special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration in Honolulu. "We must move forward with enforcement but you always need support. Teachers and those in the community who are there every single day, they must continue to work with the children and convince them that it's not cool to be an ice addict."

Joseph McNamara, a research fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and a former police chief for San Jose and Kansas City, Mo., said the ice problem is difficult to quantify and it certainly cannot be contained exclusively through enforcement.

"It's very hard to measure progress," McNamara said. "We're trying to measure illegal behavior, which is a major research problem. I'm kind of a skeptical long-term observer of the drug problem. Marijuana was the worst drug ever. Heroin was the worst drug ever. That was followed by PCP, ecstasy, and now meth. There always has to be hysteria."

McNamara said increased arrests do not necessarily mean law enforcement is solving the problem. It could mean they are just allocating more resources to the fight.

Reach Peter Boylan at pboylan@honoluluadvertiser.com.