NFL: Packers' first-round pick (No. 9) is hard to predict
By Bob McGinn
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
INDIANAPOLIS — The top three left tackles in the National Football League draft won't be available for the Green Bay Packers to take with the No. 9 selection based on a Journal Sentinel poll of executives representing 25 percent of the league.
The cross section of eight scouts, four from NFC teams and four from AFC teams, painted a picture in which the Packers might well be looking at Boston College nose tackle B.J. Raji to buttress their new 3-4 base defense.
"I haven't even started working on that," general manager Ted Thompson said Friday at the NFL combine. "When you're picking at 9 your draft board's a little bit different than when you're picking at 30. But I feel pretty strongly . . . there's going to be a pretty good player available to us."
Earlier in the week, eight personnel people were asked to take a stab at naming the eight players they thought had the least chance of making it to No. 9.
Wide receiver Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech and tackle Andre Smith of Alabama were consensus choices as the pick of the litter. They were named by all eight voters.
Next was linebacker Aaron Curry of Wake Forest with seven mentions, followed by tackle Eugene Monroe of Virginia and quarterback Matthew Stafford of Georgia, each with six.
A third tackle, Jason Smith of Baylor, was mentioned on five ballots and finished sixth.
A total of 16 players received at least one vote. But of the 64 total mentions, a full 70 percent of the mentions (45) went to players on offense compared with merely 19 mentions for the defense.
"I don't see a lot of top-10 value on the defensive side," a personnel director for an NFC team said. "The value on offense is solid. I wouldn't call it a great group up top."
Two players, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin of Missouri and inside linebacker Rey Maualuga of Southern California, tied for seventh with four mentions. There was a three-way tie for ninth, with Ohio State cornerback-safety Malcolm Jenkins and running backs Chris "Beanie" Wells of Ohio State and Knowshon Moreno of Georgia all getting three mentions.
Players with two mentions were quarterback Mark Sanchez of USC and Raji. One mention went to defensive end Tyson Jackson of Louisiana State and pass rushers Everette Brown of Florida State and Aaron Maybin of Penn State, both of whom would play linebacker in Green Bay.
One player who didn't get a vote but might interest the Packers is Michael Oher of Mississippi, the fourth player with the talent to become a franchise left tackle. He is regarded as a more risky pick than the Smiths or Monroe based primarily on character.
Certainly a lot can and probably will change in the nine weeks before the draft. Although most scouts proclaim that the tape means more than workout numbers in their evaluation process, players who excel at the combine beginning this morning or in pro-day events next month always shoot ahead on some draft boards.
But no matter what happens in T-shirts and shorts, some things will not change regarding the defensive talent the Packers will be choosing from. That is, it will be much easier for them to find pass-rushing outside linebackers than it will be to find big, brawny defensive linemen to occupy blockers.
Raji, 6 feet 1› inches and 334 pounds, is far and away the best of a lousy group of nose tackles.
"Very thin," one personnel director said, referring to the defensive-tackle group . "If you want one you're going to have to go get him. It's not a big body draft. On either side of the ball inside."
Jackson, 6-4 and 295, looks to be the only perfect fit as a 3-4 end. Yet, his marginal pass-rush ability might preclude him from being taken as high as No. 9.
Workouts definitely could sway opinions, but none of the undersized ends from collegiate 4-3 schemes who would be ideal for outside linebacker in a 3-4 seem worth being taken ninth .
The Packers appear likely to land at least one from among the group of eight with their picks in the second round (No. 41) or the third round (No. 73, No. 83).
"It's one of the best groups I've seen in a while," one scout for a 3-4 team said. "There's some good players and some good value at different levels of the draft."
Besides Everette Brown and Maybin, the group includes Texas' Brian Orakpo, USC's Clay Matthews, Northern Illinois' Larry English, Tennessee's Robert Ayers, Virginia's Clint Sintim and Connecticut's Cody Brown.
"It is a great year but it also will be hit or miss," another personnel man from a 3-4 team said. "They're just so much more comfortable with their hand down. We've missed on a lot of those guys that we thought could do it."
The Packers might be tempted to take a running back at No. 9. But based on coach Mike McCarthy's praise Friday of Ryan Grant, they appear set to pay him a $2.5 million roster bonus to remain the featured back.
What's interesting is to look back at the last 10 players taken No. 9. Only three players were on offense, and wide receivers Koren Robinson, Reggie Williams and Ted Ginn might be the most disappointing of the group.
The defensive players at No. 9, listed in their order of performance, were linebacker Brian Urlacher, defensive tackles Kevin Williams and John Henderson, linebackers Ernie Sims, Chris Claiborne and Keith Rivers and cornerback Carlos Rogers.
Thompson closed by saying it wouldn't be the end if his first-round choice doesn't contribute immediately.
"In a perfect world you'd be able to address a particular need with a really good player," Thompson said. "But if it turns out this guy comes and sits behind somebody for a couple years, that's fine, too, as long as he's that quality of player."