Hawaii's economic slump is worse than previously thought and it will last longer that originally expected, according to a state forecast released today.

Visitor arrivals, a key measure of the health of the tourism industry, are expected to fall 10.1 percent this year and 1.9 percent next year, the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism said in its quarterly economic report. In its previous report three months ago DBEDT had forecast visitor arrivals would fall 6.7 percent this year and 0.8 percent next year.

The forecast calls for real personal income -- which is adjusted for inflation -- to fall 0.2 percent this year and 0.4 percent next year. DBEDT previously forecast real personal income would rise 0.4 percent this year and 0.8 percent next year.

Real state gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, is expected to eke out a 0.3 percent gain this year and show no growth in 2009, according to the forecast. DBEDT previously had forecast 1.9 percent growth this year and 2.0 percent growth next year for real gross domestic product.

DBEDT Director Theodore Liu said there were a "couple of bright spots" in the report. He noted strength in federal and military spending, as well as the acceleration of spending on state capital improvement projects.