COMMENTARY
Oil at center of U.S.'s new paradigm shift
By Rod Dreher
Horizons shrink with end to era of cheap, abundant fossil fuel
You've heard it said that the world is flat — that today, all economics is global. Time to rethink that in light of the global energy crisis. The world is being rerounded, its horizons shrinking. Localism is the new globalism.
Cheap, abundant and accessible fossil fuels allowed us to create a world in which we are relatively unconstrained by geography. That era is passing into history.
There is not enough oil being extracted quickly or inexpensively enough to meet global demand — nor, in all likelihood, will there be again. This is called peak oil. Last week, economic analysts said Americans have never before spent a greater part of their income on energy costs. The sooner we come to terms with this reality, the sooner we can take serious steps to adapt.
By this fall, chances are John McCain and Barack Obama will be talking more about energy than any other issue. They'll have to. That would be a real change from now.
Peak oil is a far more urgent crisis than climate change, yet its economic and social effects are not even on the candidates' agendas. Every petroleum-dependent aspect of our economy, from the far-flung distribution systems for consumer goods to the daily commute, will be difficult to sustain. The only question is how soon it will happen and how traumatic the transition will be.
National, state and local politicians would be smart to approach it with a series of policy proposals based on the concept of relocalization. It's the idea that in a world of costly energy, most economic and social activity will, of necessity, be local.
A comprehensive domestic energy policy should be geared toward helping regions, cities and neighborhoods depend as little as possible on petroleum. That could mean:
Beyond localism, a far-thinking federal energy policy would consider expanding the national rail system as an increasingly cost-effective alternative to air travel. More broadly, federal and state governments also could accelerate energy-smart consumer behavior by offering substantive tax incentives for purchasing solar panels or film, constructing energy-efficient housing or retrofitting existing housing.
When presidential candidates talk about "energy independence," they're telling a half-truth. Yes, the United States is too dependent on foreign oil. But at our current consumption rate, all proven U.S. reserves, and the estimated reserves in the Arctic would supply the nation for only a few years. The notion that we will ever be energy independent is science fiction.
But we can be more energy secure by learning to live and work in ways that reduce our reliance on oil.
No question, it's going to be tough to change. We have no choice, and we have little time. It took the 20th century to build a way of life wholly dependent on cheap and available petroleum. The ground is rapidly giving way beneath our feet. The head of the Russian petro giant Gazprom foresees demand driving oil to $250 a barrel by next year.
Our nation is living through a paradigm shift. Ordinary citizens are not waiting for official action and are already working on ideas at the grass roots. We still need imaginative politicians who get what's happening and who can lead, rather than be led by events they scarcely understand.
Rod Dreher is a Dallas Morning News editorial columnist. Reach him at rdreher@dallasnews .com.
