Paths leading to primary unchanged after debate
By Johnny Brannon
Advertiser Staff Writer
The next three weeks will be critical in the hotly contested race between U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka and U.S. Rep. Ed Case, following Thursday's much-anticipated televised debate.
The two Democrats face different challenges in the race for Akaka's Senate seat, and each will be hard-pressed to further define himself and spark enough interest to bring voters to the polls for the Sept. 23 primary election.
Analysts say Akaka needs to shift the public's focus away from his age and stilted debate performance, and Case must figure out how to inspire new supporters to move to his side and actually cast ballots.
Case was the more polished candidate in the debate and was widely seen as the one who prevailed. But Akaka can now reach out to voters in other ways that better suit his style, while deflecting Case's criticisms about a dearth of joint appearances.
Neither camp said the debate forced major changes in their plans for the three weeks that remain before the primary, which will determine who advances to near-certain victory in the Nov. 7 general election. But each camp said they would stress the differences between the two so that voters have a clear choice.
"We are indeed moving forward," said Akaka spokeswoman Elisa Yadao. "The debate was a good opportunity for people to see and hear from the candidates on issues. Clearly, there are differences between where Sen. Akaka is on issues, and where Congressman Case is."
Akaka spent yesterday with volunteers at his campaign headquarters and will travel to Washington, D.C., early next week, Yadao said. He will return after several days and appear at campaign rallies and gatherings, she said.
"I think we just need to keep on communicating with voters across the state," she said.
Case spent yesterday morning campaigning on the Big Island, then appeared at a Honolulu press conference in which he was endorsed by Paychecks Hawaii, the political action arm of Small Business Hawaii.
Case said he believed his campaign had gained momentum because of the debate, but that he will continue to stress the need for a transition in leadership, and to question Akaka's effectiveness.
"Clearly, the debate accelerated our campaign," Case said. "The only real change is that we have lift-off. ... The biggest question, post-debate, is kind of back to Sen. Akaka's overall effectiveness in Washington. That seems to have been a clear observation by many people, and we obviously have to be sure that they view me as somebody that can take the reins and do a good job."
Dan Boylan, a political commentator and history professor at the University of Hawai'i-West O'ahu, said the debate was dull, and Akaka's halting style and obvious dependence on notes was clearly damaging.
"Akaka somehow has got to get the discussion back to who is more of a Democrat," Boylan said. "The debate ended up being all about age and its infirmities, and youth's capacity to hold onto facts and be good in front of a camera. And television was very, very brutal to Akaka. ... It was painful to watch him."
Akaka is 81; Case is 53. One way to shift the focus could be to stress the candidates' differences regarding the war in Iraq, Boylan said. Akaka has called for U.S. troops to pull out of Iraq by July 2007, while Case believes a unilateral and scheduled U.S. withdrawal would invite disaster.
"I think Akaka's people have to get tougher now — a lot tougher," Boylan said. "Akaka has to take it to Case on the issues. He's not going to win on youth and vigor, or command of the facts."
Case seems to have deliberately restrained himself during the debate, so as not to seem arrogant or unkind to Akaka, Boylan said. The strategy worked, but it's unclear how much of that performance will translate into votes on election day, Boylan said.
Akaka is clearly backed by the state's Democratic establishment, and should also benefit from the voter turnout triggered by the 10 Democrats competing for the U.S. House seat that Case is giving up to challenge Akaka, Boylan said. That's an unusually high number of candidates, and they all seem to be more closely aligned with Akaka than Case on the war and other key issues, he noted.
But the ability of Hawai'i's Democratic establishment to deliver votes may be over-rated, and the race between Akaka and Case seems to be tightening up, Boylan said.
"I'm not sure how effective the apparatus is anymore," he said. "An awful lot of people will tell you the so-called apparatus, the unions and so on, can't do what they used to do. More and more of the unions are boutique unions, and getting people out to help is difficult."
Andy Winer, Akaka's campaign manager, said the campaign is aggressively seeking support among voters who may cast absentee ballots before election day. The main focus will be on voters who are likely to support Akaka and typically vote in general elections, but who don't always show up for primaries, Winer said.
Neal Milner, a political science professor at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa, said it is not surprising that Akaka has ruled out any additional debates with Case. Minimizing such appearances is a typical strategy for an incumbent in a strong position, and Akaka's performance on Thursday clearly showed that he struggles with such events, Milner said.
"Dan Akaka is not suddenly going to become good on the stump, so he's not going to make himself available," Milner said. "And Ed Case still has this very significant problem with getting a bigger turnout and trying to overcome the obstacle that the people who are most likely to vote in the Democratic primary are regular Democrats who are arguably much more likely to vote for Akaka than anything else. So Case has to continue to figure out a way around that."
One way might be to draw even clearer distinctions between himself and Akaka, Milner said. The war in Iraq could be a key issue to cite, but it must be handled with care, he said.
"Case has never figured out a good way to talk about his position that takes advantage of an anti-war sentiment, but an anti-war sentiment that you can nuance a little bit," Milner said.