U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka and U.S. Rep. Ed Case have impressive job approval ratings, a new Advertiser Hawai'i Poll has found, but people who say they may vote in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in September give the advantage to Akaka.

The statewide poll found people think both candidates are doing a good job with the challenges facing Hawai'i, and see the importance of Akaka's seniority and Case's belief it is time for a transition to a younger generation.

But asked to choose now, Democratic primary voters favor Akaka over Case 51 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error among the 342 registered voters was 5.3 percentage points.

Interviews afterward with several people who participated in the poll showed that the concepts of experience and leadership transition, and not the differences between Akaka and Case on public policy, were driving their decisions. The interviews also showed that many have found it difficult to choose between two popular Democrats in the unusual primary.

James Remedios, a retired city worker who lives in Kane'ohe, has supported both Akaka and Case in the past but believes the younger Case may be too anxious. "Maybe I'm old school, but I know for a fact that seniority has a great role in the U.S. Senate. I just feel that Akaka may be able to deliver more. To me, it's just a matter of maybe one more term and Case would automatically walk in.

"Something inside told me, 'Hey, why is this guy so anxious to move up?' In my opinion, it would probably hurt us in the short run."

Geoff Goeggel, an 'Aiea engineer, believes it is time for transition. "From my perspective, what Case is saying is right," he said. "It's time for a new generation. I'm not quite sure Akaka can survive another six years. Maybe now is the time to start putting in politicians who can put together a track record."

AKAKA BILL INTERRUPTION

Ward Research Inc. conducted the Hawai'i Poll for The Advertiser among 602 registered voters on June 8 and between June 21 and June 27, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The interruption was because Akaka's Native Hawaiian federal recognition bill lost a procedural vote in the Senate on June 8, and Ward Research and The Advertiser did not want news coverage about the bill to unduly influence the poll's results.

The Hawai'i Poll found Akaka's job approval rating at 64 percent, a dramatic contrast to a separate monthly tracking poll taken by SurveyUSA right after the Senate vote, which showed Akaka's rating dipping to 48 percent. The Hawai'i Poll had Case's job approval rating at 60 percent.

The Hawai'i Poll asked people to select a party primary in September, and 57 percent — or 342 people — picked the Democratic primary. Those people were then asked to choose between Akaka and Case. The 30 percent who said they would vote in the Republican primary and the 13 percent who did not know which primary they would vote in were not asked to decide on Akaka or Case.

The questions were designed to try to identify Democratic primary voters from the larger sample.

Broken down demographically, the poll found that Akaka and Case are running closer on O'ahu than on the Neighbor Islands, where the support for Akaka was wider. The liberal Akaka also had more support among low-income people, Hawaiians and Japanese-Americans, while the moderate Case did better among Filipino-Americans and Caucasians.

Questions that tried to decipher whether people are responding more to Akaka's seniority argument or to Case's calls for leadership transition seemed to cancel each other out. Sixty-two percent strongly agreed or agreed that seniority was extremely important, while 66 percent felt the same way about leadership transition.

The results of questions about the war in Iraq, an issue where Akaka and Case have increasingly different opinions, also appeared to give both candidates opportunities. Akaka opposed the war and has called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops by July 2007. Case has said he likely would have supported the war if he had been in Congress at the time and believes troops should not be withdrawn until the country is stable.

The poll showed that 52 percent do not believe the war has made the world safer for the United States, but 58 percent want troops to stay until a stable democracy is in place.

"My feeling is one of gratitude to the people of Hawai'i," Akaka said of the overall poll results. "I really appreciate their feelings of support of my work and my service to the people of Hawai'i, and look forward to continuing to support them through this re-election campaign."

Asked what he would say to those who believe it is time for a leadership change, Akaka emphasized the value of seniority in the Senate. "I feel that people need to realize that in the U.S. Senate, seniority plays a huge part in what happens and how things are carried out," he said.

Case, who may have political appeal among independents and Republicans, said he believes a larger percentage of voters will participate in the Democratic primary than was reflected by the poll. He said he would continue to tell voters who want change that their choice is in the primary, not the general election.

"We are the underdog and we're going to be the underdog until Election Day," Case said. "And I wouldn't really have expected us to be anywhere else right now. I'm happy that the basic themes that I'm going to run on are clearly on voters' minds."

Akaka and Case have tried to show their differences on public policy, particularly on Iraq, the USA Patriot Act, drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and President Bush's tax cuts. But many of the people who responded to the poll said it was the questions of experience and transition that have motivated them so far.

There also was still some curiosity — five months after Case first announced his campaign — about why Case would challenge Akaka in the primary when Hawai'i incumbents in Congress have been virtually unbeatable since statehood.

WHAT DO PEOPLE THINK?

Hanalei Brown, a retired Air Force veteran who lives in Wailuku, said he had been leaning toward Akaka because of the senator's experience but switched to Case after talking with his wife, who prefers the congressman.

"I kind of agree with her now that it's time for a change," Brown said. "He's younger. He has experience; not as much as Akaka does, but Akaka is already up there in age. It's time for the younger people to take over so the older ones can retire."

Kathleen Correia, a healthcare manager who lives in Waikele, recognizes Akaka's experience but said he is the same age as U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye — 81 — and has not done enough to distinguish himself to warrant another six-year term.

"I think we need somebody who is a little younger who can learn from Inouye," Correia said.

Pauline Raposas, a Wai'anae housewife, is not ready for Akaka to go. "I kind of like what Akaka has been trying to do with the Native Hawaiian bill," she said. She had nothing negative to say about Case other than he might not be seasoned enough for the Senate. "Not yet, anyway," she said.

Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.