Island retailers are expected to battle for shoppers' gift dollars next week with a barrage of promotions, though they probably won't offer deep discounts on anything but clearance items and doorbusters as the holiday buying season draws to a close.

Hawai'i shopping malls said anecdotal evidence indicates gains in sales will surpass the 3 percent to 3.5 percent increase forecast nationwide for stores open more than one year. The state's healthy economy has helped increase sales, but that same robustness means retailers won't be in a panic mode, offering steep price cuts.

Lots of merchandise will be heavily discounted but that will not extend to every item. Meanwhile, retailers are still touting general discounts — Macy's offered 10 percent to 15 percent coupons valid through tomorrow on selected merchandise and Sears advertised 10 percent off most items through 10 a.m. today, for example.

Jasmine Tso, marketing and promotions director for Ala Moana Center, the state's largest retail center, said sales appear to be meeting expectations for a 5 percent to 7 percent increase at stores open more than one year.

"We're very happy with that."

Wendy Egloria, a 46-year-old Mililani resident, said she saw items on sale while shopping at Ala Moana, "but it wasn't anything that I liked. And there's not too much discounts on toys."

Waikiki resident Pamela Cress said she's doing most of her Christmas shopping on the Internet. "I don't see any good discounts at the mall," the 33-year-old account representative said. "Nothing really good is on sale."

Nationally retailers are on track to meet forecasts, dispelling worries that gasoline and energy prices might eat into Christmas buying. Stores are preparing for the biggest week of the season. In the past three years, at least five of the top 10 sales days of the holiday shopping season occurred during the final week, according to the New York-based International Council of Shopping Centers.

"It's been good but not spectacular," said George Whalin, head of Retail Management Consultants, a California-based firm. Now "it's a matter of getting all the business there is to be had."

That includes offering what's known as "planned promotions," or sale prices retailers had mapped out as they entered the holiday season to draw traffic during next week's buying binge. A survey released this week by America's Research Group found only about a quarter of shoppers had finished their gift buying.

Some retailers expect today will produce the biggest sales totals of the holiday season. Last year and in 2003 the Saturday before Christmas was the biggest sales day of the year, supplanting the day after Thanksgiving.

"This weekend should be very good because it's a payday weekend," said Carol Pregill, president of the Retail Merchants of Hawaii, a trade group that boasts 200 retailers. "When all is said and done we're going to see a pretty good holiday season."

That's crucial because November and December account for one-fifth of retail sales nationally. State general excise tax figures show retail sales totaled about $3.8 billion during the two- months.

At Pearlridge Center, the second-biggest Hawai'i shopping center, sales at stores open at least a year appear to be increasing above the national forecast, said Fred Paine, general manager.

A barometer of sales activity, the center's holiday train, is showing a 9 percent jump in ridership over last year. "That tells us we're getting more traffic here," Paine said.

As for next week, "it should be big. As it gets closer people are getting more serious and have to get out there."

The same is true at Ala Moana, where retailers report shoppers who may have picked up a gift for themselves while buying for someone else are now more focused on crossing names off their gift lists. The stores are getting more requests for gift boxes and gift cards, Tso said.

She and others believe shoppers are feeling good about the economy and that there's a correlation between low unemployment and retail sales. Hawai'i's jobless rate was 2.7 percent in October. That compared with the national rate of 5 percent.

"You've got a local economy that's had a great run," said Paul Brewbaker, Bank of Hawaii chief economist. He said shoppers may also be taking advantage of lower prices offered by Mainland big-box retailers.

During the past year Best Buy Co., the world's largest consumer electronics retailer, opened two stores on O'ahu, while Barnes & Noble, the biggest U.S. bookstore chain, opened at Ala Moana.

Electronics retailers have done well, as have jewelry stores and clothing retailers, Pregill said. However, high-end stores that cater mostly to Japanese tourists may be feeling a pinch. The yen weakened against the dollar in recent weeks, dropping to 121.04 to the dollar on Dec. 7, the lowest it's been since March 2003.

Waikele Premium Outlets reported sales were running ahead of last year's totals after a strong Thanksgiving weekend start.

"We're seeing a lot of excitement and a lot of energy," said General Manager Robert Berry.

MALLS WILL STAY OPEN LONGER

Last-minute shoppers can expect to encounter throngs of like-minded people during their forays to malls and shopping centers from now to Christmas, which figures to be the busiest of the season. Ala Moana Center already is reporting more people shopping weekday evening hours and California-based retail consultant George Whalin says the week before Christmas is when people get focused.

"Customers are going to become more picky and choosy about where they go to shop because they don't have much time," Whalin said.

For many that means hitting the large shopping venues. The tip here is to shop early or late if you want to avoid a crush of people. This week Ala Moana, which during normal times has hours from 9:30 a.m. to 9 p.m., has been open from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m.

At Pearlridge Center the hours are similar — 9 until 11. The Waikele Premium Outlets are open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.

For those that shop at the very last minute, most shopping centers are closing at 6 p.m. on Christmas Eve.

Reach Greg Wiles at gwiles@honoluluadvertiser.com.